碳酸锂日评：谨防冲高回落-20251119

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View The current supply and demand are both strong. The news of the resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi is inconsistent, and the lithium carbonate production remains at a high level. High prices intensify the downstream wait - and - see sentiment, and the spot market transactions are slow. The power demand has shown signs of peaking, and the game between bulls and bears has intensified. The trading is overcrowded. It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate widely and may fall after a sharp rise. Production enterprises can conduct selling hedging at high prices. [1] Summary According to Related Data Carbonate Lithium Futures - Price Changes: On November 18, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts decreased compared to November 17, 2025. For example, the near - month contract closed at 93,420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,720 yuan/ton. [1] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume was 1,487,724 lots (+120,805), and the open interest was 484,357 lots (-78,597). [1] - Inventory: The inventory decreased by 342 tons to 26,611 tons. [1] Lithium Ore and Related Products - Lithium Ore Prices: The prices of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and other lithium ores increased. For example, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,056 US dollars/ton, an increase of 32 US dollars/ton. [1] - Lithium Compound Prices: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other lithium compounds increased. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 87,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,250 yuan/ton. [1] Downstream Product Prices - Cathode Materials: The prices of some cathode materials such as ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased slightly, while the prices of some ternary precursors remained unchanged. For example, the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) was 142,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton. [1] - Anode Materials: The price of artificial graphite (high - end) remained unchanged. [1] - Electrolyte: The prices of electrolytes for different applications remained unchanged. [1] - Cobalt - Related Products: The prices of cobalt - related products such as electrolytic cobalt and cobalt sulfate remained unchanged. [1] Inventory Situation - SMM Lithium Carbonate Inventory: The total inventory decreased by 3,481 tons to 120,472 tons last week. The inventories of smelters and downstream decreased, while the inventory of other parts increased. [1] News and Policies - Futures Transaction Fee Adjustment: Starting from the trading time on November 20, 2025, the trading fee standard of the LC2601 contract of lithium carbonate futures is adjusted to 0.012% of the trading amount, and the intraday flat - today trading fee standard is also adjusted to 0.012% of the trading amount. [1] - Sigma Lithium Production Suspension: Sigma Lithium suspended the production of its flagship project in Brazil from late September to October to upgrade mining equipment. The company plans to complete the expansion by the end of 2026, increasing the total capacity from 245,000 tons/year to 520,000 tons/year. [1]