美联储降息预期略有升温支撑铜价+E4:K34：沪铜日评20251119-20251119

Report Title - The report is titled "Shanghai Copper Daily Report 20251119: Slightly Rising Expectations of Fed Rate Cuts Support Copper Prices" [2] Report Core View - Overseas copper mines face production disruptions, but the slightly increased probability of a Fed rate cut in December due to weak US employment performance may lead to a sideways consolidation of Shanghai copper prices [3] Data Summary Shanghai Copper Futures - On November 18, 2025, the closing price of the active Shanghai copper futures contract was 86,450, a decrease of 800 from the previous day; the trading volume was 101,029 lots, an increase of 2,940 lots; the open interest was 179,927 lots, a decrease of 15,531 lots; the inventory was 56,965 tons, an increase of 3,909 tons [3] - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 86,510, a decrease of 505; the average discount of SMM flat - water copper was 65, an increase of 35; the average premium of SMM premium copper was 165, an increase of 45 [3] - The average discount of SMM wet - process copper was - 55, a decrease of 60; the average premium of SMM Guixi copper was 205, an increase of 70; the average discount of EQ copper was - 100, a decrease of 70 [3] - The average SMM RMB Yangshan copper premium was 279.72, an increase of 0.17; the average SMM Yangshan copper premium (warehouse receipt) was 32, unchanged; the average SMM Yangshan copper premium (bill of lading) was 47, unchanged [3] - The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of Shanghai copper was - 120, a decrease of 110; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was 0, unchanged; the spread between the second - continuous and the third - continuous contract was 40, an increase of 60 [3] London Copper - On November 18, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 10,766.5, a decrease of 68.5; the total registered and cancelled warehouse receipt inventory was 140,500 tons [3] - The spread between the LME copper futures 0 - 3 month contracts was - 32.62, a decrease of 32.62; the spread between the LME copper futures 3 - 15 month contracts was 110.75, an increase of 110.75 [3] - The ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was 8.0295, an increase of 0.02 [3] COMEX Copper - On November 18, 2025, the closing price of the active COMEX copper futures contract was 5.05, a decrease of 0.08; the total inventory was 381,296 tons, an increase of 7,992 tons [3] Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Supply - There are disruptions in the production of multiple copper mines at home and abroad, resulting in a continuous negative China copper concentrate import index, leading to a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees for domestic blister copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in January decreased month - on - month [3] Demand - The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper plate strips, copper tubes, and brass rods increased compared to last week, while the capacity utilization rate of recycled copper rods decreased. The weakening of copper prices led to an increase in new downstream orders [3] Inventory - The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper increased compared to last week; the inventory of electrolytic copper on the London Metal Exchange decreased compared to last week, and the inventory of COMEX copper increased compared to last week [3] Trading Strategy - Hold previous short positions cautiously or stop losses at low prices. Pay attention to the support level around 82,000 - 84,000 and the resistance level around 88,000 - 90,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level around 10,300 - 10,500 and the resistance level around 11,000 - 11,500 for London copper; the support level around 4.5 - 4.8 and the resistance level around 5.2 - 5.5 for US copper [3]