国债期货日报：全球风险偏好下降，国债期货全线收涨-20251119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by the stock market, the decline in risk appetite is beneficial to the bond market. Meanwhile, the divergence in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the increase in global trade uncertainties add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3] - Repo rates are rising, and Treasury futures prices are fluctuating, with a neutral outlook for the 2512 contract. For arbitrage, attention should be paid to the decline in the basis of the 2512 contract. For hedging, as there is medium - term adjustment pressure, short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.20%, and China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.10% [9] - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale is 437.72 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 0.64 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.15%; M2 year - on - year is 8.20%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.20% and a decline rate of 2.38%; Manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.80% and a decline rate of 1.61% [10] - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 99.59, with a month - on - month increase of 0.05 and a growth rate of 0.05%; The offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1132, with a month - on - month increase of 0.008 and a growth rate of 0.12%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.52, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.26%; DR007 is 1.52, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.02%; R007 is 1.51, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 and a decline rate of 1.24%; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a decline rate of 0.27%; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.08, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a decline rate of 0.27% [10] 3.2 Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On November 18, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.49 yuan, 105.92 yuan, 108.50 yuan, and 116.53 yuan respectively, with daily price changes of 0.01%, 0.03%, 0.03%, and 0.06% respectively [3] - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was - 0.025 yuan, - 0.044 yuan, - 0.016 yuan, and - 0.091 yuan respectively [3] 3.3 Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - From January to October 2025, fiscal revenue showed a mild recovery, with general public budget revenue increasing by 0.8% year - on - year. Tax revenue improved for eight consecutive months, but non - tax revenue dragged down the overall growth rate. General public budget expenditure increased by only 2% year - on - year, and the growth rate slowed down for three consecutive months [2] - At the end of October, social financing and credit expanded at a low level, government bond issuance remained strong, and the financing demand of enterprises and residents was weak. M1 declined, and the M2 - M1 gap widened, indicating weak business vitality in the real economy and a return of current deposits to time deposits [2] - On November 18, 2025, the central bank conducted 407.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2] - The main term repo rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.525%, 1.518%, 1.550%, and 1.520% respectively, and the repo rates have recently rebounded [2] 3.4 Spread Overview No specific text - based summary information is provided, but there are multiple figures related to various spreads, such as the inter - period spread trends of Treasury bond futures and the spread between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [7][8] 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary information is provided, but there are figures related to the implied interest rate of the two - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [7][37][48] 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary information is provided, but there are figures related to the implied interest rate of the five - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [7][50][54] 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary information is provided, but there are figures related to the implied yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [7][57][59] 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary information is provided, but there are figures related to the implied yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [7][64][70]