银河期货每日早盘观察-20251119

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Financial Derivatives: Stock index futures are expected to remain volatile at high levels and may rebound in the short - term; treasury bond futures will have limited price fluctuations and slow roll - over progress [19][22]. - Agricultural Products: Protein meal will have obvious bullish factors and fluctuate; sugar prices will be affected by import volume and sugar mill start - ups, with limited downward space; the oil and fat sector will be affected by US biodiesel policies and maintain volatile; corn and corn starch prices will fall with the callback of spot prices; pig prices will still face supply pressure; peanut prices will oscillate at the bottom; egg prices will be stable with a slight decline; apple prices will be stable; cotton and cotton yarn prices will be mainly volatile [27][33][36][40][42][44][50][52][56]. - Black Metals: Steel prices will fluctuate within a range; coking coal and coke prices will be weak; iron ore prices will be bearish; ferroalloy prices will be supported by cost and fluctuate within a range [58][60][63][65]. - Non - ferrous Metals: Precious metals' volatility may increase; copper prices should focus on lower support; alumina prices will grind at the bottom and oscillate; electrolytic aluminum fundamentals are strong; cast aluminum alloy prices will follow aluminum prices; zinc prices will have wide - range fluctuations; lead prices will oscillate within a range; nickel prices will weaken; stainless steel prices will be weak due to supply - demand imbalance; industrial silicon prices can be bought on dips; polysilicon prices will oscillate before the platform company is established; lithium carbonate prices may fall after rising [68][73][78][80][84][86][88][90][93][95][98][99]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: On Tuesday, the market fell, with major stock index futures contracts declining. The risk appetite decreased, but technology stocks showed signs of stopping the decline [18][19]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading should expect high - level volatility and short - term rebound; for arbitrage, conduct IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; for options, use bull spreads on dips [19]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market Performance: On Tuesday, treasury bond futures closed up across the board, with limited price fluctuations. The market capital was slightly tightened, and the roll - over progress was slow [22][23]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading should be on the sidelines; for arbitrage, hold (TL - 3T) positions and consider long T contract current - quarter minus next - quarter spread; for options, no specific strategy is provided [23][24]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - Market Performance: CBOT soybean index slightly declined, and the index of related products slightly increased. Domestic supply has uncertainties, and the price has support [26][27]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading should expect price support and oscillation; for arbitrage, no specific strategy is provided; for options, no specific strategy is provided [27]. Sugar - Market Performance: International sugar prices may bottom out and oscillate. Domestic sugar prices are under pressure due to high - volume imports and sugar mill start - ups, but there is support at the current price [32][33]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading can consider building long positions on dips; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell put options at low levels [33]. Oil and Fat Sector - Market Performance: Affected by the US biodiesel policy, external market oil and fat prices rose, but the final plan is not yet determined. Palm oil may have limited rebound, and soybean oil follows the overall trend, while rapeseed oil will continue to reduce inventory [35][36]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading can use short - term long positions on dips or high - selling and low - buying; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [37]. Corn and Corn Starch - Market Performance: The external market of corn rebounded, and domestic corn prices may fall with the decline of port prices [39][40]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading can short on dips for December corn in the external market, stay on the sidelines for January corn, and wait for dips for May and July corn; for arbitrage, shrink the spread between January corn and starch; for options, stay on the sidelines [40]. Pig - Market Performance: The short - term supply pressure has improved, but the overall supply is still high, and pig prices still face pressure [42]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading can arrange a small number of short positions; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell wide - straddle strategies [42]. Peanut - Market Performance: Peanut spot prices are stable, and futures prices will oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [43][44]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading can go long on May peanuts on dips; for arbitrage, conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage; for options, sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [45]. Egg - Market Performance: Egg demand is average, and prices are stable with a slight decline [47][50]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading should stay on the sidelines; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [51]. Apple - Market Performance: Apple production has decreased, and the cold - storage inventory is likely to be lower than last year. The fundamentals are strong, but the market is volatile [52]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading should exit and wait and see; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [53]. Cotton and Cotton Yarn - Market Performance: New cotton will be listed in large quantities, and the increase in production may be less than expected. The demand is in the off - season, and cotton prices will be mainly volatile [56]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading expects US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton to be mainly volatile; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [56]. Black Metals Steel - Market Performance: The black - metal sector was weak at night, and steel prices were restricted by supply - demand structure. However, there is cost support, and hot - rolled coil performs better than rebar [58]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading should expect range - bound fluctuations; for arbitrage, long the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar; for options, stay on the sidelines [59]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Performance: After short - term replenishment, the market is cautious, and prices are weak. In the medium - term, there is demand for winter storage [60][61]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading should expect weak short - term fluctuations and consider going long near previous lows; for arbitrage, hold the 1/5 reverse arbitrage of coking coal; for options, stay on the sidelines [62]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The supply of iron ore remains high in the fourth quarter, and domestic demand is weak. Ore prices are expected to be bearish [63][64]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading should be bearish; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [64]. Ferroalloy - Market Performance: The supply and demand of ferroalloy are both weak, and prices are supported by cost and will oscillate at the bottom [65]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading should expect bottom - bound oscillations; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [66]. Non - ferrous Metals Precious Metals - Market Performance: The ADP weekly employment data was weak, and precious metals rebounded slightly. With the upcoming release of key data, volatility may increase [68][70]. - Trading Strategy: Conservative investors should stay on the sidelines; aggressive investors can try to go long near yesterday's low [71]. Copper - Market Performance: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has decreased, and copper prices are under pressure. However, there is support around 85,000 yuan/ton [72][73]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading can go long on dips; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [74]. Alumina - Market Performance: The short - term supply of alumina is still in surplus, and prices will grind at the bottom and oscillate before substantial production cuts [78]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading should expect short - term bottom - grinding oscillations; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [79]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Market Performance: Overseas interest - rate cut expectations have decreased, and aluminum prices have fallen, but the fundamentals are still strong [79][80]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading should wait for the market to stabilize and then be bullish in the medium - term; for arbitrage, focus on the narrowing of the spread between East China and Central China; for options, stay on the sidelines [80]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Performance: Cast aluminum alloy prices follow aluminum prices. The cost provides support, but market trading activity has declined [83][84]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading should wait for the market to stabilize and then be bullish in the medium - term; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [84]. Zinc - Market Performance: The domestic zinc mine supply is tight, and zinc prices may fluctuate widely due to macro factors [85][86]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading can hold profitable long positions; for arbitrage, hold the SHFE long and LME short arbitrage; for options, stay on the sidelines [86]. Lead - Market Performance: Domestic lead inventories are increasing, and lead prices are under pressure. They will be affected by overseas macro factors [87][88]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading can hold remaining short positions; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [88]. Nickel - Market Performance: Nickel is in a state of oversupply of deliverable products. In the off - season, inventories increase, and prices are weak. However, there may be production cuts [90]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading should short on rebounds; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options [91]. Stainless Steel - Market Performance: Stainless steel demand is in the off - season, costs are falling, and inventories are increasing. Prices will follow nickel prices and continue to decline [93]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading should short on rebounds; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines [94]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The demand for industrial silicon has weakened, but downstream prices have risen, and costs are firm. It can be bought on dips [95]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading should buy on dips; for arbitrage, conduct the Si2512 and Si2601 contract positive arbitrage; for options, no specific strategy is provided [95]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: The supply and demand of polysilicon have both decreased in November, and the market will oscillate before the platform company is established [98]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading should stay on the sidelines [98]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: There are increasing differences at high levels, and prices may fall after rising [99]. - No specific trading strategy is provided in the text.