新能源及有色金属日报：美联储降息预期下降，沪镍不锈钢震荡下行-20251119

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Due to the high inventory and oversupply, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. Stainless steel is also expected to stay in a low - level oscillation due to weak demand, high inventory, and a downward - shifting cost center [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - Market Analysis - On November 18, 2025, the main nickel contract 2512 opened at 116,420 yuan/ton and closed at 114,840 yuan/ton, a - 1.67% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 117,416 (+14,501) lots, and the open interest was 99,682 (-7,659) lots. The main nickel contract continued its downward trend and may continue to oscillate to find the bottom in the short term. The Fed's internal division on a December interest rate cut and the rising dollar index (to 99.6) pressured commodity prices and led to the decline of nickel prices [1]. - In the nickel ore market, the trading atmosphere was fair, and prices remained stable. In the Philippines, there were tenders for 1.4% nickel ore from Eramen and 1.25% nickel ore from Benguet. Downstream nickel - iron prices were falling, and iron mills were mainly in a wait - and - see mode and had a price - pressing mentality. In Indonesia, the November (second - phase) domestic trade benchmark price fell by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/wet ton, and the mainstream premium was +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26 [2]. - The spot price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 119,000 yuan/ton, a 1,500 - yuan/ton drop from the previous trading day. As prices continued to fall, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream enterprises increased, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands mostly rose. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 150 yuan/ton to 4,050 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 500 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 35,826 (+799) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 257,694 (+5,604) tons [2]. - Strategy - It is recommended to mainly use range - bound operations for single - sided trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - Market Analysis - On November 18, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract 2601 opened at 12,415 yuan/ton and closed at 12,365 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 92,400 (-44,713) lots, and the open interest was 177,321 (-4,171) lots. The main stainless - steel contract showed a low - level oscillation, with prices oscillating between 12,300 - 12,500 yuan/ton, breaking below the 5 - day moving average, indicating an initial short - term downward trend. Due to weak downstream demand, high inventory, and the continuous decline of nickel prices, there were still no signs of a rebound in stainless - steel prices [3]. - Spot prices continued to decline to historical lows, but the market was pessimistic, and trading did not improve significantly. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,675 (-25) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 12,700 (-50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 365 to 615 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 3.00 yuan/nickel point to 899.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - Strategy - A neutral stance is recommended for single - sided trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4].