新能源及有色金属日报：现货成交呈现区域性差异，铅价呈现震荡偏弱-20251119

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core View of the Report - The lead market is characterized by a co - existence of tight mine supply and differentiated consumption, with continuous inventory accumulation before delivery. The lead price is constrained by weak demand and high inventory on the upside and supported by cost on the downside. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the inventory depletion rhythm. The price range is approximately between 17,000 yuan/ton and 17,850 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On November 18, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$16.88/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 17,150 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 15.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,225 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 17,150 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 17,200 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 9,975 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,100 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 10,325 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On November 18, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,365 yuan/ton and closed at 17,230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 55,068 lots, a decrease of 19,523 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the position was 69,126 lots, a decrease of 5,459 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a maximum of 17,370 yuan/ton and a minimum of 17,215 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,225 yuan/ton and closed at 17,195 yuan/ton, a 0.49% decrease from the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price decreased by 125 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 100 - 80 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2512 contract for ex - factory sales; in Hunan, lead smelters quoted at a premium of 20 - 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead for ex - factory sales, but the trading was light; in Yunnan, holders quoted at a discount of 250 - 300 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead. In the context of consecutive declines in lead prices, the purchasing attitudes of downstream enterprises varied. The trading was acceptable in the northern and eastern regions, while it was average in the southern regions [2] Inventory - On November 18, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 39,000 tons, an increase of 3,700 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 18, the LME lead inventory was 264,800 tons, an increase of 43,650 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The strategy for lead investment is to take a neutral stance. For options, a sell - wide - straddle strategy is recommended [3]