国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251119

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore: Downstream demand has limited space, and the valuation is high [2][4]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Both are expected to experience wide-range fluctuations [2][7][8]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Market sentiment has weakened, and the alloys are experiencing compensatory declines [2][14]. - Coke and coking coal: Both are expected to experience wide-range fluctuations [2][17]. - Logs: The market will fluctuate repeatedly [2][19]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Fundamentals: The futures price closed at 792.0 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan or 0.44%. The open interest decreased by 10,108 lots to 471,291 lots. Spot prices generally declined, with the basis and some spreads showing changes [4]. - News: In October, the year-on-year actual growth of industrial added value above designated size was 4.9%, and the year-to-date growth from January to October was 6.1% [5]. - Trend Intensity: -1, indicating a bearish outlook [5]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - Fundamentals: Rebar RB2601 closed at 3,090 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan or 0.46%. Hot-rolled coil HC2601 closed at 3,286 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan or 0.21%. There were changes in trading volume, open interest, spot prices, basis, and spreads [8]. - News: In the weekly data on November 13, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand all changed. In early November, key steel enterprises' steel inventories, production, and import/export data also showed various trends [9][11]. - Trend Intensity: Both are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamentals: Ferrosilicon 2601 closed at 5,474 yuan/ton, down 92 yuan. Manganese silicon 2601 closed at 5,680 yuan/ton, down 112 yuan. There were changes in trading volume, open interest, spot prices, basis, and spreads [14][15]. - News: There were price quotes for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions, and electricity prices in some areas changed [14]. - Trend Intensity: Both are -1, indicating a bearish outlook [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Coking coal JM2601 closed at 1,159 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan or 4.2%. Coke J2601 closed at 1,649.5 yuan/ton, down 60.5 yuan or 3.5%. There were changes in trading volume, open interest, spot prices, basis, and spreads [17]. - News: The National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply during the heating season [18]. - Trend Intensity: Both are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [18]. Logs - Fundamentals: There were changes in the closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log futures contracts, as well as in spot prices and spreads [20]. - News: The Customs总署 decided to lift the suspension of log imports from the United States starting from November 10, 2025 [22]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [22].