尿素早评20251119：价格底部或逐步明朗-20251119

Report Summary 1. Report industry investment rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core view of the report - The current bottom of urea prices may gradually become clear. Urea's low valuation reflects the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand, but price support exists at low levels due to factors such as new export quotas and winter reserve demand. The report suggests taking profit on sold put - options and paying long - term attention to buying opportunities on dips [1] 3. Summary by relevant catalog Urea futures prices (closing prices) - UR01: 1662.00 yuan/ton on November 18, unchanged from the previous day [1] - UR05: 1736.00 yuan/ton on November 18, down 1.00 yuan (-0.06%) from November 17 [1] - UR09: 1747.00 yuan/ton on November 18, down 8.00 yuan (-0.46%) from November 17 [1] Domestic spot prices (small - granules) - Shandong: 1610.00 yuan/ton on November 18, up 20.00 yuan (1.26%) from November 17 [1] - Shanxi: 1490.00 yuan/ton on November 18, up 10.00 yuan (0.68%) from November 17 [1] - Henan: 1610.00 yuan/ton on November 18, up 10.00 yuan (0.63%) from November 17 [1] - Hebei: 1630.00 yuan/ton on November 18, up 20.00 yuan (1.24%) from November 17 [1] - Northeast: 1670.00 yuan/ton on November 18, up 20.00 yuan (1.21%) from November 17 [1] - Jiangsu: 1600.00 yuan/ton on November 18, up 20.00 yuan (1.27%) from November 17 [1] Basis and spreads - Shandong spot - UR: - 126.00 yuan/ton on November 18, up 21.00 yuan from November 17 [1] - 01 - 05 spread: - 74.00 yuan/ton on November 18, up 1.00 yuan from November 17 [1] Upstream costs - Anthracite coal price in Henan: 1030.00 yuan/ton on November 18, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Anthracite coal price in Shanxi: 930.00 yuan/ton on November 18, unchanged from the previous day [1] Downstream prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong: 3000.00 yuan/ton on November 18, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Compound fertilizer (45%S) in Henan: 2550.00 yuan/ton on November 18, up 20.00 yuan (0.79%) from November 17 [1] - Melamine price in Shandong: 5093.00 yuan/ton on November 18, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Melamine price in Jiangsu: 5200.00 yuan/ton on November 18, unchanged from the previous day [1] Important information - Urea futures main contract 2601 had an opening price of 1655 yuan/ton, a high of 1671 yuan/ton, a low of 1653 yuan/ton, a closing price of 1662 yuan/ton, and a settlement price of 1662 yuan/ton on November 18. Its持仓量 was 250957 hands [1] Trading strategy - Take profit on sold put - options, and pay long - term attention to buying opportunities on dips [1]