新能源及有色金属日报：平台推进进度较缓，多晶硅盘面偏弱震荡运行-20251119

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, after the reduction in production in the southwest region, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and the total inventory has decreased. The industrial silicon valuation is currently low, and if there is policy support, the market may have room to rise. For polysilicon, the supply and demand on both sides have weakened, with large inventory pressure and general consumer - end performance. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and is expected to fluctuate mainly [3][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Market Analysis - On November 18, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 9050 yuan/ton and closed at 8980 yuan/ton, a change of - 80 yuan/ton (- 0.88%) from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 248,019 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 43,402 lots, a change of - 620 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable, with the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon at 9400 - 9500 (- 50) yuan/ton, 421 silicon at 9700 - 9800 (0) yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 price at 8800 - 8900 (0) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price at 8800 - 8900 (0) yuan/ton [1]. - The reported price of organic silicon DMC was 12,500 - 13,000 (0) yuan/ton. The guiding price of organic silicon DMC was 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of about 1700 - 2000 yuan/ton in the past week compared to before the joint price - support on November 12. Other downstream product prices also rose, with the 107 glue price at 13,700 - 14,000 yuan/ton, raw rubber price at 14,000 yuan/ton, and silicone oil at 14,700 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of about 1700 - 2200 yuan/ton in the past week [2]. - Strategy - Short - term range operation is recommended, and long positions can be taken on the dry - season contracts when the price is low. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3]. Polysilicon - Market Analysis - On November 18, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated weakly, opening at 52,000 yuan/ton and closing at 52,210 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.67% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 137,091 (136,243 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume was 173,704 lots. The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly, with N - type material at 49.70 - 54.90 (0.00) yuan/kg and n - type granular silicon at 50.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. The polysilicon manufacturer inventory increased, with the latest polysilicon inventory at 26.70 (a month - on - month change of 3.09%), silicon wafer inventory at 18.42GW (a month - on - month change of 5.14%), polysilicon weekly output at 26,800.00 tons (a month - on - month change of - 0.74%), and silicon wafer output at 13.12GW (a month - on - month change of - 2.45%) [4]. - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.27 (- 0.03) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm at 1.60 (- 0.03) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers at 1.28 (- 0.02) yuan/piece. The polysilicon output in October was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, production in the southwest region will be significantly reduced, and the output is expected to decline. The prices of battery cells and components remained stable [6]. - On November 17, Liu Hanyuan, the chairman of Tongwei Group, made a public statement on polysilicon capacity integration. The polysilicon capacity integration plan, known as "integration," is being promoted by upstream giants and industry associations. The plan is expected to establish a fund of about 70 billion yuan, using a "debt - assumption" method of leveraging 70 billion with 10 billion for acquisitions to achieve capacity control and clearance [7]. - Strategy - Short - term range operation is recommended, and the 12 - contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [8].