华宝期货晨报铝锭-20251119

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Views of the Report - The finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend [2][4]. - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to undergo short - term high - level adjustments, considering the increasing inventory pressure and the complex macro - situation [2][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production [3]. - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui Province: one has stopped production on January 5th, most will stop around mid - January, and a few after January 20th, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [4]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4]. - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center has been moving down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [4]. Aluminum Ingots - Macroscopically, the number of initial jobless claims in the US in mid - October reached a two - month high. The market is waiting for the Fed's October 28 - 29 meeting minutes and the US Department of Labor's September employment report [3]. - In October 2025, China imported 13.77 million tons of bauxite, a 13.29% decrease from the previous period but a 12.5% increase year - on - year [4]. - The alumina market has a continuous oversupply situation. Although the decline of spot prices has slowed down, it has not stopped. Industry profits are shrinking, forcing some high - cost enterprises in Shanxi and Henan to reduce production, with a weekly output decrease of 17,000 tons. However, the alumina inventory at electrolytic aluminum plants and in the social sector is still accumulating, reaching 4.793 million tons [4]. - Last week, the SMM weekly aluminum - water ratio was 77.25%, a 0.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period. Some sectors are transitioning from the peak to the off - season, and the high aluminum price has pressured downstream processing fees, leading some processing enterprises to cut production and some aluminum - water suppliers to increase ingot casting [4]. - Last week, the overall operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62%. The SMM predicts that the operating rate of the aluminum downstream processing industry will show a differentiated trend in the short term, with power grid orders supporting a slight increase in aluminum cables, while aluminum plates, strips, and foils are likely to decline due to environmental protection and the off - season [4]. - On November 17, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 646,000 tons, an increase of 25,000 tons from last Thursday and 19,000 tons from last Monday [4]. - The market still anticipates a tightening of overseas aluminum supply due to the reported production cuts in Iceland and Mozambique. However, with the arrival of the domestic off - season and weakening downstream demand, the inventory pressure is increasing, and the price is expected to have short - term回调 space [5].