新能源及有色金属日报：绝对价格回落后现货贴水明显修复-20251119

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] 2) Core View of the Report - After the absolute price of zinc fell, the downstream's acceptance of the price significantly increased, and the spot discount quickly repaired. The TC of domestic zinc mines in November further decreased significantly, and the overseas TC also decreased synchronously. The smelting comprehensive profit was severely compressed, and the supply - side pressure is expected to decrease more than expected. The overseas warehouse receipt inventory remains low, and the warehouse receipt risk still exists. Micro - data has almost completely changed from bearish to bullish, and the zinc price is expected to be resistant to decline due to the weakened expectation of US interest rate cuts in December and January. [4] 3) Summary According to Related Catalogues Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is $104.97/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,320 yuan/ton, a change of - 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of 20 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,270 yuan/ton, - 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 55 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,270 yuan/ton, - 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 30 yuan/ton. [1] - Futures: On November 18, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,460 yuan/ton and closed at 22,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 93,469 lots, and the position was 82,326 lots. The highest price during the day was 22,465 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,265 yuan/ton. [2] - Inventory: As of November 18, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 156,600 tons, a change of - 1,300 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 43,525 tons, a change of 3,550 tons from the previous trading day. [3] Market Analysis - After the fall in the absolute price of zinc, the downstream's price acceptance increased, and the spot discount repaired. In November, the TC of domestic and overseas zinc mines decreased. The smelting profit was compressed, and the supply - side pressure is expected to decrease. The overseas warehouse receipt inventory is low, and the macro - level interest rate cut expectation is weakened, making the zinc price resistant to decline. [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5]