国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20251119

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Most of the industries are rated with a neutral trend strength (0), including p-xylene, PTA, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, LLDPE, paper pulp, glass, urea, benzene, LPG, and propylene [11][15][19] - Some industries are rated with a weak trend strength (-1), including MEG, PP, caustic soda, methanol, soda ash, PVC, fuel oil, and low-sulfur fuel oil [13][41][46] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For various energy and chemical products, the report provides trend judgments and investment suggestions based on their respective fundamentals, including supply and demand, inventory, and market news [11][12][13] - Some products are expected to be in a volatile market, while others face supply pressure or have potential for price support [20][21][65] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - PX: It is in a unilateral volatile market, and there is limited upside space. Do not chase high prices. Maintain reverse arbitrage operations for the 1-5 spread [11] - PTA: The upside space may be limited, and do not chase high prices. The polyester load will fluctuate, and there will be a cumulative inventory pattern in the future. Maintain reverse arbitrage operations for the 1-5 spread [12] - MEG: The medium-term trend is weak. Conduct short positions on rallies and maintain reverse arbitrage for the spread [13] Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - Rubber: It is in a volatile operation [14] - Synthetic Rubber: The futures price is expected to be supported in the short term due to the improvement in the synthetic rubber industry chain and the support from the natural rubber sector [20][21] Asphalt - It is in a narrow-range volatile market. The domestic asphalt refinery production is expected to decline in December [22][34] LLDPE and PP - LLDPE: Agricultural demand may peak, and attention should be paid to supply pressure [35] - PP: Do not chase short positions in the short term, but the medium-term trend still faces pressure [39][40] Caustic Soda and PVC - Caustic Soda: The trend still faces pressure due to high production, high inventory, and weak demand [43][45] - PVC: The market has a high production and high inventory structure, and the trend still faces pressure [80] Paper Pulp and Glass - Paper Pulp: It is in a volatile operation. The supply pressure persists, and the demand is weak [48][50] - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable [52] Methanol and Urea - Methanol: It is in a weak operation due to high supply and weak demand [56][59] - Urea: The price is expected to be supported in the short term due to the potential transfer of export quota inventory and the peak of midstream replenishment [65][66] Benzene and Soda Ash - Benzene: Pay attention to the increase in ethylbenzene, and it is in a short-term volatile market [67] - Soda Ash: The spot market has little change, and the short-term market is expected to be stable and volatile [69][70] LPG and Propylene - LPG: The supply and demand are expected to tighten, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [73] - Propylene: The spot price is strong, and the futures price is oscillating at the bottom [73] Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: The short-term weakness reappears, and it is still weaker than low-sulfur fuel oil [83] - Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil: The night trading price declined, and the price difference between high and low sulfur in the overseas spot market reached a high point for the year [83] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is in a volatile market [85]