新能源及有色金属日报：铜价下跌刺激下游采购，目前价格暂时维稳-20251119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: Short put 2. Core View of the Report - Although high copper prices significantly inhibit consumption, due to tight supply at the mine end and better - than - expected performance in the new energy sector such as photovoltaics in the second half of the year, the copper price may maintain a volatile and upward - biased pattern. It is advisable to buy on dips for hedging between 85,000 yuan/ton and 85,500 yuan/ton, and enterprises with selling - hedging needs can conduct corresponding operations between 88,500 yuan/ton and 89,000 yuan/ton [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On November 18, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 86,440 yuan/ton and closed at 85,650 yuan/ton, a 0.93% decline from the previous trading day's close. In the overnight session, it opened at 85,530 yuan/ton and closed at 85,900 yuan/ton, a 0.29% increase from the afternoon close [1] 3.1.2 Spot Situation - According to SMM, on the previous day, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 85,830 - 86,180 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 70 yuan/ton over the current - month contract, a 35 - yuan decline from the previous day. The decline in copper prices stimulated the downstream purchasing sentiment. The procurement and sales indices in Shanghai rose to 3.10 and 3.24 respectively [2] 3.1.3 Important Information Summary - Trump said he had selected the candidate for the next Fed Chair. Bessent narrowed the candidates to current Fed governors Waller and Bowman, former Fed governor Warsh, White House NEC Director Hassett, and BlackRock executive Reid. The "small non - farm" ADP weekly employment data showed that from November 1 to November 8, the average weekly employment in the US private sector decreased by 2,500. As of the week of October 18, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 232,000, and the number of continued jobless claims rose slightly to 1.957 million [3] 3.2 Mine End - African Rainbow Minerals (ARM) is evaluating a partnership with Newmont to develop a large copper mine in Papua New Guinea, with a potential investment of $4 - 5 billion. Freeport - McMoRan plans to resume large - scale production at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia in the second quarter of next year. It expects the total output of copper and gold at PT Freeport Indonesia in 2026 to be basically the same as in 2025, at about 1 billion pounds of copper and 900,000 ounces of gold, and an output increase in 2026 - 2027, with an average annual copper output of about 1.6 billion pounds and an average annual gold output of about 1.3 million ounces from 2027 - 2029 [4] 3.3 Smelting and Import - Last week, the Yangshan copper premium continued to weaken. The weekly average price of the bill of lading was $45.4/ton, a $1.4 decline from the previous week; the average price of the warehouse receipt was $34/ton, a $1 decline from the previous week. The import window remained closed, with a loss of about 850 yuan/ton. The foreign trade market had light trading, but there were two active structural points [5] 3.4 Consumption - China aims to add 100 GW of new - type energy storage capacity from 2025 - 2027 and reach 180 GW by the end of 2027. The US is expected to add about 19 GW of energy - storage power and 52.5 GWh of capacity in 2025, a 53% and 45% year - on - year increase respectively. Energy - storage expansion will boost metal demand, and the copper demand in China's electric vehicle and energy - transformation sectors is expected to increase by 18% year - on - year to 3 million tons in 2025 [6] 3.5 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 325 tons to 140,500 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 3,909 tons to 60,874 tons. On November 18, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 193,800 tons, a 7,300 - ton decrease from the previous week [6]