Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may be on the stronger side, and zinc prices may fluctuate within a range [2] - For copper, night - time prices closed higher. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output continues to grow. The Indonesian mine accident is likely to turn the global copper supply - demand into a deficit, supporting copper prices in the long run [2] - For zinc, night - time prices closed higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and concentrate supply is temporarily tight, but smelting output continues to grow. The overall supply - demand difference of zinc is not obvious, and it may fluctuate within a range [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Market situation: Night - time copper prices closed higher. Concentrate supply is tight, smelting profits are at the break - even point, and smelting output has high growth. Grid investment has positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales have positive growth, home appliance production scheduling has negative growth, and the real estate market is weak [2] - Future outlook: The Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a global copper supply - demand deficit, supporting copper prices in the long term. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 85,650 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 25 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 10,698 US dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 35.33 US dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 136,050 tons, and the daily change was 325 tons [2] Zinc - Market situation: Night - time zinc prices closed higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and smelting output continues to grow. Galvanized sheet inventory is at a high level, infrastructure investment growth slows down, automobile production and sales have positive growth, home appliance output has negative growth, and the real estate market is weak [2] - Future outlook: The overall supply - demand difference of zinc is not obvious, and it may fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,310 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 75 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,991 US dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 129.76 US dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 39,975 tons, and the daily change was 1,000 tons [2] Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 21,420 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 40 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,790 US dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 35.81 US dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 550,200 tons, and the daily change was - 2,175 tons [2] - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 114,840 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 2,590 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 14,645 US dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 199.86 US dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 257,694 tons, and the daily change was 5,604 tons [2] - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,210 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 150 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,027 US dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 28.21 US dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 266,125 tons, and the daily change was 43,650 tons [2] - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 288,890 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 1,800 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 36,860 US dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 5.01 US dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 3,055 tons, and the daily change was - 10 tons [2]
20251119申万期货有色金属基差日报-20251119
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo·2025-11-19 03:29