黄金周报：多位美联储官员发表鹰派言论，导致金价冲高回落-20251119

Report Summary of Gold Weekly (2025.11.10 - 2025.11.16) 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Multiple Fed officials' hawkish remarks led to a rise - then - fall in gold prices last week. Although the prices ended up significantly higher overall, they faced pressure in the second half of the week. This week, gold prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, with no unilateral trend likely [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Market Review - Gold Spot and Futures Prices: Last Friday (Nov 14), Shanghai gold futures closed at 953.20 yuan/gram, up 3.47% from the previous Friday; COMEX gold futures closed at 4084.40 dollars/ounce, up 1.91%. Gold T + D spot prices rose 3.31% to 947.98 yuan/gram, and London gold spot prices increased 2.05% to 4082.16 dollars/ounce [3][5]. - Gold Basis: The international gold basis (spot - futures) was - 15.40 dollars/ounce last Friday, down 14.30 dollars/ounce from the previous Friday. The Shanghai gold basis was - 2.52 yuan/gram, down 1.14 yuan/gram [8]. - Gold Domestic - Foreign Spread: The gold domestic - foreign spread was - 6.47 yuan/gram last Friday, up from - 18.76 yuan/gram the previous Friday. The gold - oil ratio rose slightly, the gold - silver ratio declined, and the gold - copper ratio remained stable [10]. - Position Analysis: Gold ETF holdings increased last week. The world's largest SPRD gold ETF fund held 1044.00 tons, up 1.94 tons. Domestic gold T + D trading volume rose 3.45%. Gold CFTC asset management institutions' long and short positions both increased, with long net positions rising slightly. COMEX gold futures inventory decreased, while SHFE gold inventory increased by 810 kg to 90426 kg [14]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Fundamentals - Important Economic Data: The US Senate and House passed a temporary appropriation bill to end the 43 - day government shutdown, with funds until January 30, 2026. The 10 - month ADP private - sector employment decreased by 45,000, the largest drop in two and a half years. The release schedule for important US data was set, with September non - farm payrolls due on November 20 [17][18][19]. - Fed Policy Tracking: Due to data gaps from the government shutdown, Fed officials' hawkish stances increased. New York Fed President Williams said the Fed would start buying assets to maintain sufficient reserves when the level is reached [29][30]. - US Dollar Index Trend: The US dollar index declined slightly last week, down 0.28% to 99.28, as the market worried about weakening employment data [31]. - US TIPS Yield Trend: The US 10 - year TIPS yield rose slightly last week as hawkish remarks from Fed officials made the market predict a less - than - 50% chance of a December rate cut [33][37]. - International Important Event Tracking: On November 14, Ukraine attacked Russia's Novorossiysk port, reducing global crude supply by about 2.0%. On November 16, it attacked a Russian refinery, and Russia continued to advance in Ukraine [35].