Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information on the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On November 18, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2601 closed at 8,980 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.88%. The position decreased by 3,530 lots to 248,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon by Baichuan was 9,675 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 remained stable at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 50 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2601 closed at 52,210 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 1.67%. The position increased by 848 lots to 137,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon was 52,300 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was 523,000 yuan/ton. The spot changed from a discount to a premium of 90 yuan/ton to the main contract. [2] - Silicon plants in the southwest continued to cut production and hold back sales. Transactions were mainly concentrated on Xinjiang point-price orders and Tianjin trading. The current supply tightening and cost increase provided bottom support for industrial silicon. However, the simultaneous production cuts in downstream industries restricted the upward space, so industrial silicon continued to fluctuate and adjust. A industry conference was held, and there were changes in the polysilicon production storage platform. Due to the significant effectiveness of the industry's anti-involution reported by CCTV and the continuous voice of the Photovoltaic Association, some negative emotions were diluted. [2] - Due to the contraction of downstream orders, silicon wafers took the lead in cutting production and prices, putting upward pressure on polysilicon. At the same time, on the basis of the spot price remaining firm, the bottom position was stable. The top and bottom of crystalline silicon were clear, and the volatility within the range was high. Investors needed to enter the market cautiously. [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Industrial silicon fluctuated weakly and polysilicon fluctuated strongly on November 18. The supply and cost factors affected the price trends of both, and downstream production cuts restricted the upward space. The industry conference and media reports had an impact on market sentiment. [2] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 8,980 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices remained stable, with only a few varieties showing small changes. The spot discount narrowed to 50 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 620 to 43,402, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 4,175 to 226,725 tons. The total social inventory increased by 400 to 452,400 tons. [2][3] - Polysilicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 445 yuan/ton to 52,210 yuan/ton. The spot prices remained stable. The spot changed from a discount to a premium of 90 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased by 230 to 7,960, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 52,000 tons to 243,600 tons. The total social inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 279,000 tons. [2][3] - Organic Silicon: The price of DMC in the East China market remained stable at 13,000 yuan/ton. The price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 700 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton. [3] 3. Chart Analysis - Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices: Charts showed the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices. [5][7][10] - Downstream Product Prices: Charts presented the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. [12][14][17] - Inventory: Charts displayed the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, and changes in weekly inventory, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon. [18][21] - Cost and Profit: Charts showed the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon. [24][26][28] 4. Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience and professional qualifications in the field of non - ferrous metals research. [32][33][34]
工业硅、多晶硅日报（2025 年 11 月 19 日）-20251119
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-11-19 05:36