Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Cotton is expected to have a slightly weak and volatile short - term trend due to supply pressure, with limited adjustment range, waiting for time to resolve the situation. The USDA report is relatively bearish, and the domestic cotton commercial inventory is increasing rapidly [1]. - Sugar is under pressure. With more sugar mills starting production and import pressure, if there is no continuous positive news in the syrup and premixed powder import segment, the market may continue to decline. Attention should be paid to the October import data of syrup and premixed powder [1]. Group 3: Summary according to the Directory 1. Research Views - Cotton: On Tuesday, ICE US cotton rose 0.59% to 65.44 cents per pound, CF601 fell 0.3% to 13,395 yuan per ton, and the main contract positions decreased by 6,347 to 565,000. The 3128B spot price index was 14,280 yuan per ton, down 35 yuan. The market focuses on the macro - level, with the Fed's December interest - rate cut expectation affecting market sentiment. The USDA report increased the expected cotton production in the world, China, and Brazil. Domestically, the short - term supply pressure is significant, and the cotton commercial inventory is rising rapidly [1]. - Sugar: In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 213,200 tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the total import was 3.9054 million tons, a 13.8% increase. The spot prices in different regions were adjusted downwards. India's new sugar production is progressing steadily, and the market sentiment is suppressed by the expected increase in the Northern Hemisphere's production [1]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 1 - 5 contract spread was - 10 with no change, the main contract basis was 1394, up 38. The Xinjiang spot price was 14,558 yuan per ton, down 21, and the national spot price was 14,789 yuan per ton, down 12 [2]. - Sugar: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 54, down 8. Some data sources for sugar were missing [2]. 3. Market Information - On November 18, the cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 10 to 4386, and the valid forecasts were 928. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were reported, and the yarn and short - fiber cloth load and inventory data were also provided [2][3]. - On November 18, the sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 11 to 8611, and the valid forecasts were 183 [4]. 4. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts related to cotton and sugar, including closing prices, basis, contract spreads, warehouse receipts, and price indices, are presented, with data from 2021 - 2025 [6][8][10][12][14][15]
光大期货软商品日报-20251119
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-11-19 05:32