新世纪期货交易提示（2025-11-19）-20251119

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron Ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillation [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [4] - 2 - year Treasury Bonds: Oscillation [4] - 5 - year Treasury Bonds: Oscillation [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bonds: Upward [4] - Gold: High - level Oscillation [4] - Silver: High - level Oscillation [4] - Logs: Bottom Oscillation [5] - Pulp: Oscillation [5] - Offset Paper: Oscillation [5] - Soybean Oil: Range - bound Movement [5] - Palm Oil: Range - bound Movement [5] - Rapeseed Oil: Range - bound Movement [5] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating Weakly [5] - Rapeseed Meal: Oscillating Weakly [8] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating Weakly [8] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating Weakly [8] - Live Pigs: Oscillating Strongly [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [10] - PX: Oscillation [10] - PTA: Oscillation [10] - MEG: Wide - range Oscillation [10] - PR: On - hold [10] - PF: On - hold [10] Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows a complex trend with different products having various price trends due to their specific supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and external policy and geopolitical influences. For example, in the iron ore market, the supply - demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse, and prices are mainly oscillating; in the financial market, the short - term market is consolidating, but the medium - term trend is still upward [2][4]. Summaries by Categories Ferrous Metals Industry - Iron Ore: Overseas iron ore shipments increased significantly, but domestic port arrivals continued to decline. Iron ore demand marginally recovered, but the supply - demand surplus pattern was hard to change, and steel mill profits were squeezed again. The probability of short - term negative feedback was low, and iron ore prices mainly oscillated [2]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After the heating - season supply - guarantee meeting, the upward driving force for coking coal and coke weakened. Coking plants faced high costs and low profitability, and the fourth round of coke price increases was still under negotiation. The market's divergence on the expected supply contraction of coking coal at the end of the year increased, and prices were in an adjustment state in the short term [2]. - Rolled Steel and Rebar: Downstream demand was low, and the upside was suppressed. The key factor was steel demand, and domestic demand was hard to improve. Steel prices would stop falling if production reduction of over 5% was strictly implemented in Q4 2025 and anti - "involution" policies were effectively implemented. Currently, steel prices were expected to remain at the bottom and oscillate [2]. - Glass: Spot prices were relatively weak, and some manufacturers started to cut prices. With the fermentation of the news of coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe, the market had already priced in the positive factors. Real - world demand was weak due to the decline in real - estate completion, and enterprise inventories continued to increase. Attention was paid to production line cold - repair and policies [2]. - Soda Ash: The report did not provide detailed information on soda ash other than the investment rating of "oscillation" [2]. Financial Market - Stock Index Futures/Options: The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indexes. Some sectors had capital inflows, while others had outflows. The short - term market was in consolidation, and the medium - term trend was upward. It was recommended to hold long positions in stock indexes [4]. - Treasury Bonds: The yields of ten - year Treasury bonds were flat, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations with a net injection of funds. Treasury bond spot - market interest rates were consolidating, and the market trend was slightly rebounding. It was recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds with a light position [4]. - Gold and Silver: In the context of high - interest rates and globalization reconstruction, the pricing mechanism of gold was changing. Central - bank gold purchases, currency credit issues, and geopolitical risks were the main driving factors. The logic of the current gold - price increase had not completely reversed, and short - term factors included the Fed's interest - rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment. The short - term market mainly traded on monetary - policy expectations [4]. Wood and Pulp - Logs: Log port shipments decreased, and downstream demand was in the off - season. The supply was under pressure, and the demand was hard to increase. The cost support weakened, and the inventory pressure was large. The spot - market prices were weak, and the ex - works prices were expected to bottom - oscillate [5]. - Pulp: The previous trading day's spot - market prices were differentiated. The cost support for pulp prices weakened, the paper - industry profitability was low, and the demand was poor. Pulp prices were expected to oscillate [5]. - Offset Paper: The previous trading day's spot - market prices were stable. The supply was stable, and the market expectation was cautious. The price was expected to oscillate [5]. Oilseeds and Oils - Oils: US soybean crushing reached a record high, and Malaysian palm - oil production was higher than expected. The supply of domestic oils was abundant, while the demand was weak. With the cost support of soybeans for soybean oil, the overall oils were expected to continue range - bound movement [5]. - Meal: The US soybean production, exports, and ending stocks were adjusted down, but the global soybean supply was still relatively loose. The domestic soybean - meal supply was abundant, and the demand was supported by high - level livestock inventories, but the high price of soybean meal suppressed restocking intentions. Soybean meal was expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [5][8]. Agricultural Products - Live Pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs fluctuated slightly. The demand for pork had recovered, and the slaughter - enterprise operating rate had increased slightly. With the temperature dropping, the terminal consumption was expected to further release, and the average price of live pigs was expected to oscillate [8]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: The raw - material supply in different regions was affected by weather conditions. The inventory was at a low level, and the demand from tire - manufacturing enterprises had recovered. The natural - rubber inventory was in the seasonal accumulation period, and the price was expected to oscillate widely [10]. - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF: PX prices were driven up by factors such as the oil - price increase and market - sentiment changes, but were expected to oscillate considering the supply and demand situation. PTA prices were expected to follow the cost - side fluctuations. MEG had long - term inventory - accumulation pressure, and its price was expected to adjust widely in the short term. PR and PF markets were expected to be weak or have narrow - range adjustments due to weak demand and limited cost support [10].