尿素早评：价格底部或逐步明朗-20251119

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The current bottom of urea prices may gradually become clear. Urea's valuation is still relatively low despite a recent rebound, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. However, the new round of export quotas will relieve the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price, and low prices may stimulate storage - enterprises to enter the market. The low - valuation of urea is the result of market consensus on the pressure of supply - demand surplus, but the price is supported at a low level. The report suggests selling options to take profits and paying attention to long - position opportunities on dips in the medium - to - long term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - UR01: The closing price on November 18 was 1,662 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - UR05: The closing price on November 18 was 1,736 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan or 0.06% from the previous day [1]. - UR09: The closing price on November 18 was 1,747 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan or 0.46% from the previous day [1]. Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule) - Shandong: The price on November 18 was 1,610 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan or 1.26% from the previous day [1]. - Shanxi: The price on November 18 was 1,490 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan or 0.68% from the previous day [1]. - Henan: The price on November 18 was 1,610 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan or 0.63% from the previous day [1]. - Hebei: The price on November 18 was 1,630 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan or 1.24% from the previous day [1]. - Northeast: The price on November 18 was 1,670 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan or 1.21% from the previous day [1]. - Jiangsu: The price on November 18 was 1,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan or 1.27% from the previous day [1]. Basis and Spreads - Shandong spot - UR: The value on November 18 was - 126 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan from the previous day [1]. - 01 - 05 spread: The value on November 18 was - 74 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan from the previous day [1]. Upstream Costs - Anthracite coal price in Henan: 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - Anthracite coal price in Shanxi: 930 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Downstream Prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Shandong: 3,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - Compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Henan: 2,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan or 0.79% from the previous day [1]. - Melamine price in Shandong: 5,093 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - Melamine price in Jiangsu: 5,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Important Information The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1,655 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,671 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,653 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,662 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1,662 yuan/ton. The position volume was 250,957 lots [1]. Trading Strategy Sell options to take profits and pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips in the medium - to - long term [1].