集运日报：SCFIS持续下行，压制盘面持续下探，符合日报预期，可考虑部分止盈，关注12月运价支撑逻辑。-20251119

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - SCFIS is continuously declining, indicating that the actual price increase implementation is not ideal, leading to a decline in bullish sentiment and a weak overall market oscillation. The core now lies in the direction of spot freight rates, and the main contract may be in the process of bottom - building. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [2][6]. - The issue of tariffs has shown a marginal effect, and the current focus is on the trend of spot freight rates [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Indexes - SCFIS: On November 17, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1357.67 points, down 9.8% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1238.42 points, down 6.9% from the previous period [3]. - SCFI: On November 14, the announced price of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1451.38 points, down 43.72 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1417 USD/TEU, up 7.1% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1823 USD/FEU, down 17.59% from the previous period [4]. - NCFI: On November 14, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 999.69 points, down 5.12% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 979.34 points, up 7.42% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1052.43 points, down 21.99% from the previous period [5]. - CCFI: On November 14, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1094.03 points, up 3.4% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1403.64 points, up 2.7% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 846.24 points, up 3.9% from the previous period [5]. 3.2 Economic Data - Eurozone: In October, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous 45), the preliminary services PMI was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous 51.4), the preliminary composite PMI was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous 49.6), and the Sentix investor confidence index was expected to be - 8.5 (previous - 9.2) [5]. - China: In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [5]. - US: In October, the preliminary S&P Global services PMI was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous 54.2), the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 52.2 (expected 52, previous 52), and the preliminary composite PMI was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous 53.9) [6]. 3.3 Market Conditions of Contracts - On November 18, the main contract 2602 closed at 1678.1, down 2.88%, with a trading volume of 29,200 lots and an open interest of 38,900 lots, a decrease of 20 lots from the previous day [6]. 3.4 Strategies - Short - term Strategy: For risk - preferring investors, it is recommended to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range, consider partial profit - taking, pay attention to spot trends, avoid holding losing positions, and set stop - losses [7]. - Arbitrage Strategy: In the context of international turmoil, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see or lightly attempt [7]. - Long - term Strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [7]. 3.5 Other Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18% [7]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28% [7]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [7].