Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific investment ratings for the entire report industry are provided. Core Views - Treasury Bonds: Expected to face some pressure, maintain a cautious stance [6][7] - Stock Index Futures: The risk of a significant decline is low, and it is advisable to take long positions opportunistically [9][10] - Precious Metals: Temporarily observe and wait for opportunities to go long [11][12] - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils: The medium - term weakness of rebar prices is difficult to change, and hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13] - Iron Ore: The supply - demand pattern is weak. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels [15] - Coking Coal and Coke: May continue to correct in the short term. Investors can focus on buying opportunities during corrections [17] - Ferroalloys: After a decline, consider long positions at low levels when the spot falls into the loss - making range [19][20] - Crude Oil: In the short term, focus on shorting opportunities for the main contract [22][23] - Fuel Oil: Focus on shorting opportunities for the main contract [25][26] - Polyolefins: Temporarily observe [28] - Synthetic Rubber: Expected to fluctuate, with limited downside space. Pay attention to raw material prices and supply changes [29][31] - Natural Rubber: Focus on long - position opportunities [32][33] - PVC: Pay attention to supply - side changes [34][35] - Urea: The downward space is limited [36][37] - PX: May fluctuate and adjust in the short term, with support at the bottom. Consider trading within the range [38][39] - PTA: May fluctuate in the short term. Be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [40] - Ethylene Glycol: May be under pressure in the short term. Pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [41] - Short - Fiber: May fluctuate following the cost. Control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42] - Bottle Chips: Expected to fluctuate following the cost. Control risks [43] - Lithium Carbonate: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [44][45] - Copper: Expected to maintain high - level oscillations [46][47] - Aluminum: May experience a phased correction [48][50] - Zinc: Will continue to oscillate within a range [51][52] - Lead: Will operate within a range [53][54] - Tin: May oscillate strongly [55][56] - Nickel: May oscillate [57] - Soybean Oil and Meal: For soybean meal, consider exiting long positions when it continues to rise; for soybean oil, consider long positions at the low - cost support range [58][59] - Palm Oil: Consider going long during corrections [60][61] - Rapeseed Meal and Oil: Consider a bullish approach for rapeseed oil [63][64] - Cotton: Expected to be weak [65][67][68] - Sugar: Expected to be under pressure and operate with a weak oscillation [69][71][72] - Apples: Expected to operate strongly [73][76] - Hogs: Consider shorting on rebounds [77][78] - Eggs: Consider closing short positions gradually [79][82] - Corn and Starch: It is advisable to observe for corn and wait for the release of supply pressure; corn starch may follow the corn market [83][86] Summary by Category Treasury Bonds - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw all treasury bond futures close higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year contracts rising 0.06%, 0.03%, 0.03%, and 0.01% respectively [5] - Open - Market Operations: On November 18, the central bank conducted 4075 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 37 billion yuan [5] - Policy News: 12 departments including the Beijing Branch of the People's Bank of China issued a plan to support consumption infrastructure and the construction of the commercial circulation system [5] Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw mixed performance in stock index futures, with the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures down 0.41%, 0.23%, 0.85%, and 0.69% respectively [8][9] - Economic Data: In October, the unemployment rates of different age - groups in the labor force were announced, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to grow [9] - Market Outlook: The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. Asset valuations are low, and the market sentiment has warmed up. The risk of a significant decline is low [9] Precious Metals - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw gold and silver futures decline, with gold down 1.18% and silver down 1.96% [11] - Positive Factors: The complex global trade and financial environment, central bank gold - buying, and the expected Fed rate cuts are beneficial to precious metals [11] - Negative Factors: The recent sharp rise in precious metals has led to high prices and increased volatility [11] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw a slight rebound in rebar and hot - rolled coil futures [13] - Supply - Demand Analysis: The demand for rebar is declining year - on - year, and the market is entering the off - season. Supply is affected by poor profitability, and inventory is high [13] - Outlook: The medium - term weakness of rebar prices is difficult to change, and hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend [13] Iron Ore - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw iron ore futures oscillate [15] - Supply - Demand Analysis: The demand for iron ore has declined, but there was a recent increase in daily pig - iron output. Supply is abundant, and inventory is higher than last year [15] - Outlook: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and there may be resistance to rebounds [15] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw a sharp decline in coking coal and coke futures [17] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Coking coal supply is slightly tight, and demand is weak. Coke supply has decreased, and demand may weaken [17] - Outlook: May continue to correct in the short term [17] Ferroalloys - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures decline [19] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Manganese ore supply has decreased, and costs have increased. Production is declining, and demand is weak, with inventory accumulating [19] - Outlook: After a decline, consider long positions at low levels when the spot falls into the loss - making range [19][20] Crude Oil - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw INE crude oil open high and close low [21] - Industry News: The CFTC report is suspended, the number of US oil and gas rigs has increased, and Russia has been attacked [21] - Outlook: There are concerns about oversupply, but the attack on Russia is beneficial to prices. In the short term, focus on shorting opportunities [22][23] Fuel Oil - Market Performance: Not specifically mentioned, but there is an analysis of supply and demand [24] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Singapore's fuel oil inventory is high, which is negative, while Russia's sanctions and reduced Sino - US trade frictions are positive [24][25] - Outlook: Focus on shorting opportunities [25][26] Polyolefins - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw a weak and volatile PP market in Hangzhou and a stable LLDPE market in Yuyao [27] - Supply - Demand Analysis: PP downstream demand has a mixed performance, with some industries seeing an increase and others remaining weak [27] - Outlook: Temporarily observe [28] Synthetic Rubber - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the main synthetic rubber contract rise 0.91% [29] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Raw material prices have rebounded, production capacity utilization has increased, and inventory has increased [29][30] - Outlook: Expected to fluctuate, with limited downside space. Pay attention to raw material prices and supply changes [29][31] Natural Rubber - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the main natural rubber contract rise 0.33% [32] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Supply is affected by weather, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [32] - Outlook: Focus on long - position opportunities [32][33] PVC - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the main PVC contract decline 1.46% [34] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Supply exceeds demand, production capacity utilization has decreased, and inventory has decreased slightly [34][35] - Outlook: Pay attention to supply - side changes [34][35] Urea - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the main urea contract rise 0.36% [36] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is at a certain level [36] - Outlook: The downward space is limited [36][37] PX - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the main PX contract decline 0.53% [38] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Production capacity utilization has decreased, and imports have decreased slightly [38] - Outlook: May fluctuate and adjust in the short term, with support at the bottom. Consider trading within the range [38][39] PTA - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the main PTA contract decline 0.55% [40] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Production capacity utilization has adjusted, demand is stable, and processing fees have decreased [40] - Outlook: May fluctuate in the short term. Be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [40] Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the main ethylene glycol contract decline 0.64% [41] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Production capacity utilization has decreased, inventory has increased, and demand is limited [41] - Outlook: May be under pressure in the short term. Pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [41] Short - Fiber - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the main short - fiber contract decline 0.64% [42] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Production capacity utilization is high, demand is weak, and processing fees are at a certain level [42] - Outlook: May fluctuate following the cost. Control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42] Bottle Chips - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the main bottle - chip contract decline 0.56% [43] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Production capacity utilization has decreased, export growth has slowed, and processing fees are at a certain level [43] - Outlook: Expected to fluctuate following the cost. Control risks [43] Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the main lithium carbonate contract rise 0.93% [44] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Supply is at a high level, and demand from the energy storage and power battery sectors is improving, with inventory decreasing [44][45] - Outlook: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [44][45] Copper - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the main copper contract decline 0.03% [46] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Supply is affected by mine production problems, and demand is weak except for the copper - foil sector [46] - Outlook: Expected to maintain high - level oscillations [46][47] Aluminum - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the main aluminum contract decline 0.16%, and the alumina contract decline 0.36% [48] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Alumina supply is abundant, and aluminum demand is weakening [48] - Outlook: May experience a phased correction [48][50] Zinc - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the main zinc contract rise 0.11% [51] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Supply of zinc concentrate is tight, production has decreased, and demand is flat [51] - Outlook: Will continue to oscillate within a range [51][52] Lead - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the main lead contract decline 0.49% [53] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Supply is affected by smelter maintenance, and demand is in the off - season [53] - Outlook: Will operate within a range [53][54] Tin - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the main tin contract rise 0.68% [55] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Supply is tight, and demand has shown some resilience [55][56] - Outlook: May oscillate strongly [55][56] Nickel - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the main nickel contract decline 0.02% [57] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Nickel ore prices are stable, production may be affected, and demand is weak [57] - Outlook: May oscillate [57] Soybean Oil and Meal - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw soybean meal down 0.33% and soybean oil up 0.60% [58] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Domestic soybean supply is abundant, oil - mill压榨 is in a loss, and demand for both products has some improvement [58][59] - Outlook: For soybean meal, consider exiting long positions when it continues to rise; for soybean oil, consider long positions at the low - cost support range [58][59] Palm Oil - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil futures rose, and exports decreased in November [60] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Malaysian inventory is at a high level but may decrease, and domestic inventory is at a medium level [60] - Outlook: Consider going long during corrections [60][61] Rapeseed Meal and Oil - Market Performance: Canadian rapeseed futures rose [62] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Chinese rapeseed imports have decreased, and inventory is at different levels [62][63] - Outlook: Consider a bullish approach for rapeseed oil [63][64] Cotton - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw domestic cotton futures decline, and overseas cotton rose [65] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Global and US cotton production and inventory have increased, and domestic supply pressure is high [65][67] - Outlook: Expected to be weak [65][67][68] Sugar - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw domestic and overseas sugar futures decline [69] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Brazil is in the seasonal production - reduction period, India has strong production - increase expectations, and domestic imports are expected to be high [69][71] - Outlook: Expected to be under pressure and operate with a weak oscillation [69][71][72] Apples - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw domestic apple futures oscillate at a high level [73] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Inventory is lower than last year, and quality is poor [73][74][75] - Outlook: Expected to operate strongly [73][76] Hogs - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the main hog contract decline 1.16% [78] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Supply is abundant, and demand is affected by the season. Inventory and cost are at certain levels [77][78] - Outlook: Consider shorting on rebounds [77][78] Eggs - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the main egg contract decline 0.87% [82] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Supply is at a high level, but there are signs of improvement. Demand is weak [79][80][82] - Outlook: Consider closing short positions gradually [79][82] Corn and Starch - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the main corn contract decline 0.50% and the starch contract decline 0.96% [83] - Supply - Demand Analysis: Corn supply is abundant, and demand is growing slightly. Corn starch demand has improved, but inventory is high [83][84][86] - Outlook:
西南期货早间评论-20251119
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-11-19 06:00