Minsheng Securities·2025-11-19 06:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the steel industry, highlighting the potential for profit recovery and capacity optimization as key investment themes [4][5]. Core Insights - The steel sector has shown a significant recovery in profitability, with the SW Steel index rising by 24.00% in Q1-Q3 2025 and 14.19% from October 2025 to date, outperforming major indices [1][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of differentiated production restrictions to promote industry consolidation and the transition towards high-value, low-carbon, and intelligent production methods [2][3]. - Manufacturing and direct export demand remain resilient, supporting steel consumption despite a weak construction sector [2]. Summary by Sections Steel Sector Performance - In Q1-Q3 2025, the steel sector's net profit saw a year-on-year increase of 747.63%, with a gross margin recovery to 7.59% and a net margin of 2.19% [17][21]. - The performance of the steel sector has been strong, with the SW Steel index ranking 4th among all sectors since October 2025 [1][11]. Supply-Side Policies - The introduction of differentiated production restrictions aims to eliminate inefficient capacity and enhance industry concentration [2][3]. - New policies are expected to drive the optimization of production capacity, with a focus on high-end, green, and intelligent manufacturing [3][51]. Demand-Side Dynamics - The manufacturing sector, particularly in machinery and commercial vehicles, continues to show strength, while direct exports have increased significantly, supporting steel demand [2][3]. - The construction sector remains weak, but early indicators suggest a stabilization in demand for construction steel [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading steel companies that are well-positioned to benefit from policy support and capacity optimization, such as Hualing Steel, Baosteel, and Nanjing Steel [3][4]. - For special steel, companies benefiting from downstream demand in automotive and energy sectors are recommended, including Xianglou New Materials and Jiuli Special Materials [3]. - In the raw materials sector, companies with clear growth in non-ferrous resources, such as Dazhong Mining and Hebei Steel Resources, are highlighted [3].