弘业期货原周报：上市一周年，运行平稳-20251119

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The log spot price is running weakly, mainly due to a large short - term arrival volume, a decline in demand, and radiation pine inventory accumulation. The futures price continues to oscillate weakly. The supply side pressure has improved, but the downstream actual demand is lower than expected, and there is no substantial positive news in tariffs and real estate. In the short term, logs will continue to oscillate weakly [2][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spot and Futures - Spot: The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port is 750 yuan/cubic meter, and that at Taicang Port is 760 yuan/cubic meter, both down from the previous period. In October 2025, the FOB price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs was 116 US dollars/cubic meter, up 1 US dollar/cubic meter from the previous month [2] - Futures: As of the close on November 18, the main log contract 2601 closed at 785 yuan/cubic meter, continuing its weak oscillation [2] 2. Supply - New Zealand port shipments: From November 8 - 14, 2025, a total of 7 ships with 280,000 cubic meters of logs departed from New Zealand ports, a decrease of 3 ships and 110,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week. Among them, 6 ships with 250,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, a decrease of 3 ships and 120,000 cubic meters [2] - Expected arrival volume at 13 ports: From November 17 - 23, 2025, 13 ships of New Zealand logs are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 3 ships or 30% week - on - week; the total arrival volume is about 465,000 cubic meters, an increase of 150,000 cubic meters or 48% week - on - week [2] - Actual arrival volume at 13 ports last week: From November 10 - 16, 2025, 10 ships of New Zealand logs arrived at 13 Chinese ports, a decrease of 6 ships or 38% week - on - week; the total arrival volume was about 315,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 214,000 cubic meters or 40% week - on - week [2] - Import volume: In October 2025, China imported 4.19 million cubic meters of logs and sawn timber; from January to October, the import volume was 46.366 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 12.4% [2] 3. Inventory - As of November 14, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.95 million cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters from the previous week; the radiata pine inventory was 2.43 million cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters; the North American timber inventory was 100,000 cubic meters, unchanged from the previous week; the spruce/fir inventory was 210,000 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters [3] - High arrival volume continues to put pressure on port log inventory and spot prices. After the arrival volume decreases in mid - November, inventory accumulation may ease after 1 - 2 weeks [3] 4. Demand - Domestic port log outbound volume: From November 7 - 14, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 65,600 cubic meters; among them, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 36,700 cubic meters, and that at Jiangsu ports was 24,400 cubic meters [3] - The national log outbound volume rebounded, especially in Shandong. The core problem is that the port arrival pressure is large, while downstream demand is restricted by seasonal factors, leading to increased sales pressure on traders [3] 5. Recent News and Outlook Tariffs and Imports/Exports - China's radiata pine imports are concentrated in New Zealand, increasing the risk of relying on a single source. The anti - involution policy has an indirect impact on the log market. The May Sino - US Geneva Joint Statement is beneficial for wood product exports, but the terminal market is currently sluggish [4] - The EU will impose higher anti - dumping duties on Chinese hardwood plywood from December 7, 2025. Mexico has made a positive preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Chinese cardboard. Since November 10, 2025, the suspension of US log imports has been lifted, but the arrival volume will be limited in the short term [4] - Russian freight costs have increased by up to 50%, and wood prices have risen by 11% - 14%. China's demand market is currently weak [4] Trading and Delivery - Since its listing one year ago, the trading and holding volume of log futures and options has increased steadily. A total of 8 futures contracts and 164 option contracts have been listed, with a combined trading volume of about 7.87 million lots, a trading value of about 464 billion yuan, an average daily trading volume of about 32,400 lots, and an average daily holding volume of about 53,400 lots [5] - The LG2507 and LG2509 contracts have expired, with a total delivery of 1,412 lots, equivalent to about 127,100 cubic meters of log spot, with a total value of about 104 million yuan [5] Downstream and Building Materials/Real Estate - In September 2025, the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores nationwide was 130.838 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 23.84% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.02%; from January to September, the cumulative sales volume was 1,044.801 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.75% [5] - As of November 4, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.82%, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 percentage points. The real estate data shows a downward trend, and the log demand side remains weak [5] 6. Strategies and Suggestions - The 2509 contract weakened in the second - quarter off - season and rose significantly from July to August, mainly driven by shortages of some specifications, rising FOB prices, and pre - delivery stocking demand. After entering the delivery month, the near - and far - month contracts showed different trends [6] - In September, the 2511 contract price rose and then fell rapidly before the delivery month. The "Golden September and Silver October" demand was average, and the futures price回调 after the holiday in October, reflecting market pessimism about downstream demand [6] - The previous main contract 2601 continued to oscillate strongly when the 2511 contract declined. Currently, the downstream actual demand is lower than expected, and there is no substantial positive news. The log market will continue to oscillate weakly in the short term [6]