黑色金属数据日报-20251119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a state where price suppression lacks safety - margins, but there is no clear upward driving force. Steel production is expected to gradually decline in the future, and it is necessary to wait for the implementation of the production - cut logic [3]. - The supply - demand situation of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is poor, and prices are under pressure. Despite stronger cost support, the oversupply pattern persists [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the coking coal auction prices mostly declined. The positive factors on the supply side of coking coal are weakening, and demand is marginally weakening. Coal and coke prices are expected to be weak in November, with limited decline, and may rise again around mid - December [3]. - The fundamentals of iron ore are weak, and although there is strong macro - sentiment, the inventory pressure is high, and the price is difficult to break through the range. It is advisable to short on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On Tuesday, the spot and futures prices remained stable, but the spot trading volume declined, and the market's initiative to chase up prices was weak. The next macro - observation period is after early December [2]. - There are contradictions in the industry: low static valuation of steel futures prices, lack of upward driving force, and unresolved concerns about long - term production cuts in steel mills. Steel production is expected to gradually decline, and it is necessary to wait for the implementation of the production - cut logic [3]. - Investment strategy: Hold a wait - and - see attitude for single - side trading; consider participating in cash - and - carry arbitrage for hot - rolled coils or use option strategies to assist spot sales [3]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - With the pressure on steel prices, steel mill profits have shrunk, iron - water production has decreased, and the direct demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has weakened significantly. The weekly apparent demand has dropped to the lowest point of the year. - Although alloy factory profits are poor, production remains high, and the medium - term supply surplus pressure persists. The inventory of alloy factories and the number of warehouse receipts are accumulating. - Despite the strengthening of cost support due to the rise in coking coal and coke prices, the oversupply pattern continues, and prices will be under pressure. - Investment strategy: Investment clients should short on rallies, and industrial clients can use accumulated put options to protect their spot positions [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - In the spot market, the domestic market sentiment has weakened. Most coking coal spot auctions have declined, and the port - traded quasi - first - grade coke price has decreased. - On the futures side, coking coal and coke prices dropped sharply at the opening, and after the end of speculation, they returned to the original downward trend. - The positive factors on the supply side of coking coal are weakening, and downstream demand is marginally weakening. High valuations are difficult to sustain. - In November, coal prices are under downward pressure and will be weak in a volatile manner. Considering the limited domestic coal production and low coal mine inventories, the decline is expected to be limited. Around mid - December, prices may rise again if there is a new round of restocking. - Investment strategy: Adopt a short - term approach for single - side trading, wait and see for the long - term, and consider partially closing the previously recommended hedging short positions [3]. Iron Ore - In the short term, the arrival of iron ore at ports has weakened slightly, but subsequent shipments are not significantly affected, and inventory will continue to accumulate. - The increase in iron - water production is due to the resumption of production of previously shut - down steel mills and the end of environmental protection restrictions in Hebei. However, steel mill profits are affecting production willingness, and port inventory will continue to rise. - Although the price has rebounded at the bottom of the range, it is difficult to break through the range due to inventory pressure. - Investment strategy: Hold short positions [3]. Futures Market Data - Futures Closing Prices: On November 18, for far - month contracts, the closing prices of RB2605, HC2605, I2605, J2605, and JM2605 were 3139.00 yuan/ton, 3295.00 yuan/ton, 757.50 yuan/ton, 1795.00 yuan/ton, and 1232.00 yuan/ton respectively; for near - month contracts, the closing prices of RB2601, HC2601, I2601, J2601, and JM2601 were 3090.00 yuan/ton, 3286.00 yuan/ton, 792.00 yuan/ton, 1649.50 yuan/ton, and 1159.00 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Price Changes: The far - month contracts had price changes of 11.00 yuan/ton, 4.00 yuan/ton, 8.00 yuan/ton, - 47.00 yuan/ton, and - 38.00 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding percentage changes of 0.35%, 0.12%, 1.07%, - 2.55%, and - 2.99%. The near - month contracts had price changes of 14.00 yuan/ton, 7.00 yuan/ton, 11.00 yuan/ton, - 48.50 yuan/ton, and - 46.50 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding percentage changes of 0.46%, 0.21%, 1.41%, - 2.86%, and - 3.86% [1]. - Inter - month Spreads: On November 18, the inter - month spreads of RB2601 - 2605, HC2601 - 2605, I2601 - 2605, J2601 - 2605, and JM2601 - 2605 were - 49.00 yuan/ton, - 9.00 yuan/ton, 34.50 yuan/ton, - 145.50 yuan/ton, and - 73.00 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Spreads/Ratios/Profits: On November 18, the coil - to - rebar spread was 196.00 yuan/ton, the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.90, the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.42, the rebar's on - paper profit was - 99.30 yuan/ton, and the coking on - paper profit was 108.03 yuan/ton [1]. - Spot Prices: On November 18, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, Guangzhou rebar, Tangshan billets, and the Platts Index were 3250.00 yuan/ton, 3260.00 yuan/ton, 3420.00 yuan/ton, 2970.00 yuan/ton, and 105.20 respectively [1]. - Basis: On November 18, the basis of HC, RB, I, J, and JM were - 16.00 yuan/ton, 160.00 yuan/ton, 30.00 yuan/ton, 84.42 yuan/ton, and 251.00 yuan/ton respectively [1].