Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The USDA's November supply - demand report for 2025/26 US soybeans showed a slight downward adjustment in yield, exports, and carry - over, with less - than - expected bullish impact. Brazilian new - crop production is predicted to reach 177.6 million tons. 11 - 12 months in China are expected to see a decline in soybean meal inventory, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be ample. The purchase progress for 12 - 1 month shipments is slow, and the supply gap in Q1 next year is uncertain [7]. - In terms of demand, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in the red, and national policies aim to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect future supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is high, with cautious downstream transactions and good提货 performance [8]. - China's soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels for the same period, and are expected to decline from November to December. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has dropped to a low level. If there are no severe weather problems, the market is expected to start trading on the selling pressure of new South American crops from December to January, and it is recommended to short the 05 contract on rallies [8]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - Soybean Meal Spot Basis: On November 18th, the basis of the Dalian soybean meal main contract (Zhangjiagang) was 19, up 22. The basis in different regions such as Tianjin, Rizhao, Dongguan, etc. showed various values and changes [4]. - Rapeseed Meal Spot Basis: The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 120, down 14 [4]. - Spread Data: The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the spread of the main contract was 610, up 16 [5]. 3.2 Supply - related Data - US Supply: The USDA's November report adjusted the 2025/26 US soybean yield from 53.5 bushels per acre to 53 bushels per acre, kept the crush at 2.555 billion bushels, reduced exports from 1.685 billion bushels to 1.635 billion bushels, and cut the carry - over from 300 million bushels to 290 million bushels [7]. - Brazilian Supply: The predicted 2025/26 Brazilian new - crop production is 177.6 million tons. As of November 8th, the sowing rate was 58.4%, compared with 47.1% last week, 66.1% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 57%. Attention should be paid to the relatively dry weather in southern Brazil and the impact of the weak La Nina weather pattern [7]. - Domestic Supply: From November to December, domestic soybean meal is expected to see inventory reduction, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be ample. The purchase progress for 12 - 1 month shipments is slow, and the supply gap in Q1 next year is uncertain [7][8]. 3.3 Demand - related Data - Livestock and Poultry Demand: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in the red, and national policies aim to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect future supply [8]. - Soybean Meal Demand: The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is high. Recently, downstream transactions have been cautious, but the提货 performance has been good [8]. 3.4 Inventory - related Data - Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels for the same period, and are expected to decline from November to December. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [8].
蛋白数据日报-20251119
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-11-19 06:26