集运日报：SCFIS持续下行，压制盘面持续下探，符合日报预期，可考虑部分止盈，关注12月运价支撑逻辑-20251119

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: November 19, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Container Shipping Daily Report Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - SCFIS continues to decline, suppressing the market to fall, and the actual price increase implementation is not ideal. The long - term sentiment has subsided, and the market is in a weak shock. The core is the trend of spot freight rates, and the main contract may be in the bottom - building process [2][6] - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [6] Group 4: SCFIS, NCFI and Other Indexes - On November 17, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1357.67 points, down 9.8% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1238.42 points, down 6.9% from the previous period [3] - On November 14, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1451.38 points, down 43.72 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European line was 1417 USD/TEU, up 7.1% from the previous period; the SCFI price for the US West route was 1823 USD/FEU, down 17.59% from the previous period [4] - On November 14, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 999.69 points, down 5.12% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 979.34 points, up 7.42% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1052.43 points, down 21.99% from the previous period [5] - On November 14, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1094.03 points, up 3.4% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1403.64 points, up 2.7% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 846.24 points, up 3.9% from the previous period [5] Group 5: Economic Data - Eurozone's October manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9, expected 45.1, previous value 45; the service PMI preliminary value was 51.2, expected 51.5, previous value 51.4; the composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7, expected 49.7, previous value 49.6; the Sentix investor confidence index's previous value was - 9.2, forecast value - 8.5 [5] - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [5] - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global services PMI in October was 55.2, expected 53.5, previous value 54.2; the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2, expected 52, previous value 52; the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8, expected 53.1, previous value 53.9 [6] Group 6: Market Situation of Main Contracts - On November 18, the main contract 2602 closed at 1678.1, down 2.88%, with a trading volume of 29,200 lots and an open interest of 38,900 lots, a decrease of 20 lots from the previous day [6] Group 7: Strategies Short - term Strategy - For risk - preference investors, it is recommended to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the range of 1550 - 1600, consider partial profit - taking, pay attention to the spot trend, not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [7] Arbitrage Strategy - In the context of international situation turmoil, each contract still maintains seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see or lightly try [7] Long - term Strategy - It is recommended to take profit when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [7] Group 8: Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [7] - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [7] - The intraday opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [7]