郑棉：集中上市压力渐显

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The November USDA report increased the production estimates of the US and China, which was overall bearish. With the increase in new cotton processing volume, the market's estimate of the new - season cotton production was also raised. Downstream demand was average, and there were signs of inventory accumulation in finished products, but the overall pressure was not significant. As seed cotton procurement was nearing completion, the supply pressure was becoming more evident with the concentrated listing of new cotton. It was expected that Zhengzhou cotton futures would be weak in the short term. Key factors to watch were macro - economic conditions, demand, and policies [3]. - The November USDA report did not adjust the harvested price of US cotton but raised the yield per unit, ultimately increasing the US cotton production estimate by 200,000 tons compared to September. It also increased China's cotton production estimate by 220,000 tons and Brazil's by 110,000 tons. Globally, the cotton production estimate was raised by 520,000 tons, and the ending inventory estimate was increased by 600,000 tons compared to September, showing a bearish outlook [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Production and Supply - As of November 13, the national new cotton picking progress was 98.3%, the delivery rate was 95.5%, the processing rate was 56%, and the sales rate was 22.8%. As of November 16, the national new cotton inspection volume in the 2025/26 season was 3.0893 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.24% [6]. - According to the USDA's weekly export report, as of the week ending September 25, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 35,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 81%, a 4% decrease from the four - week average, and a year - on - year increase of 77% [24]. - As of 24:00 on November 17, the cotton inspection volume in the 25/26 season was about 3.1708 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 19.73% [42]. Cotton Market Price and Index - From November 10 to November 17, the price of the ZCE active cotton contract dropped from 13,580 yuan/ton to 13,445 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton, and the ICE active cotton contract dropped from 64.34 cents/pound to 64.21 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.13 cents/pound [10]. - From November 10 to November 17, the CotlookA price index dropped from 75.2 cents/pound to 74.4 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.80 cents/pound, and the Indian S - 6 spot price dropped from 52,300 rupees/candy to 51,900 rupees/candy, a decrease of 400 rupees/candy [12]. - From November 10 to November 17, the port pick - up prices of imported cotton yarns such as Indian C32S, Vietnamese C32S, and Indonesian C32S all decreased [14]. - From November 10 to November 17, the arrival prices of imported cotton such as US EMOT M and Brazilian M under 1% tariff and sliding - scale duty all decreased [15]. Textile and Apparel Market - In October 2025, China's textile and apparel export volume was 2.2619 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.63% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.84%. Among them, textile exports decreased by 9.10% year - on - year and 5.92% month - on - month, and apparel exports decreased by 15.97% year - on - year and 11.64% month - on - month [4]. - Benefiting from the pre - promotion of "Double Eleven", clothing consumption showed a stable recovery trend. In October, the retail sales of textiles and apparel reached 147.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%, and the growth rate increased by 1.6 percentage points month - on - month, significantly outperforming the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods [5]. Inventory and Related Indicators - As of this Wednesday, the sum of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 5,314, and the sum of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 28 [69]. - On Tuesday of this week, the spot price index of 328 cotton increased week - on - week, the closing price of the main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract increased week - on - week, and the basis between them widened week - on - week. The price index of C32S yarn increased week - on - week, the closing price of the main Zhengzhou yarn futures contract increased week - on - week, and the basis between them widened week - on - week [54][55]. - On Tuesday of this week, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the imported cotton port pick - up price index under sliding - scale duty and 1% tariff increased week - on - week. The price difference between the C32S yarn price index and the port pick - up price increased week - on - week [58]. - On Tuesday of this week, on the futures market, the price difference between the main Zhengzhou yarn futures contract and the main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract widened week - on - week, and the immediate theoretical processing profit of 32 - count pure - cotton yarn showed a wider loss week - on - week [61].