Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-11-19 06:56Group 1: Oil and Gas Exploration - The supply of oil is expected to slow down, maintaining Brent oil prices in a neutral range of $55-70 per barrel in 2026, with OPEC+ production pace easing and non-OPEC growth significantly declining [3][9] - Global GDP growth is projected at approximately 3.1% in 2026, leading to a slowdown in oil demand growth [3][9] - Geopolitical uncertainties are increasing, with ongoing sanctions on risk oil types, although some expectations are already priced into stock valuations [3][9] Group 2: Refining Industry - The refining sector is anticipated to see a recovery in profitability due to domestic "anti-involution" policies and the gradual exit of overseas refining capacity [4] - New refining capacity additions are nearing completion, but there will still be significant pressure on the supply side in the coming years [4] - The overall refining sector is expected to have reached a bottom in terms of profitability, with substantial potential for upward elasticity in the future [4] Group 3: Polyester Industry - The polyester industry is expected to experience limited new investment, with significant recovery potential in profitability due to the end of large capital expenditures in PTA and coordinated production cuts by leading companies [5] - The production capacity growth for polyester filament is projected to maintain a rate of 2-3%, with expectations for improved downstream demand [5] - The industry is nearing the end of new capacity releases for polyester bottle chips, leading to an ideal collaborative effect among companies and gradual recovery in profitability [5] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The downstream polyester sector is tightening in supply and demand, with improvement expectations, recommending high-quality companies in polyester filament and bottle chips [6] - With oil prices expected to decline, refining companies are anticipated to see cost improvements, suggesting attention to major refining companies [6] - The upstream exploration and development sector remains highly prosperous, with offshore capital expenditures expected to remain high, recommending offshore oil service companies [6]