HTSC·2025-11-19 07:47Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 235.40 for the Hong Kong stock and USD 243.20 for the US stock [7]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 31.2 billion for Q3 2025, a year-on-year decline of 7.1%, which was better than the expected decline of 8.6%. The strong performance was attributed to the continued robust growth of AI cloud revenue and a less severe decline in core advertising revenue [1]. - The company has disclosed three major AI business lines, collectively generating approximately RMB 10 billion in revenue, accounting for about 40% of the core total revenue, with a year-on-year growth exceeding 50% [1]. - The management expects improvements in core revenue and non-GAAP operating profit in Q4 2025, driven by the ongoing transformation of the advertising system and a lower year-on-year comparison base [1]. Summary by Sections AI Business Growth - The AI cloud revenue grew by 21% year-on-year to RMB 6.2 billion, with subscription revenue from AI high-performance infrastructure increasing by 128% [2]. - The three newly disclosed AI business lines include: 1. Smart Cloud Infrastructure: Revenue of RMB 4.2 billion, up 33% year-on-year. 2. AI Applications: Revenue of RMB 2.6 billion, up 6% year-on-year. 3. AI Native Marketing Services: Revenue of RMB 2.8 billion, up 262% year-on-year [3]. Autonomous Driving - The company's autonomous driving service, "萝卜快跑," has achieved 100% unmanned operation in domestic cities, with a total order volume of 3.1 million in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 212% [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company adjusted its non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to RMB 19.4 billion, RMB 21.5 billion, and RMB 24.1 billion, respectively, reflecting a 19.7% increase for 2025 due to better-than-expected Q3 performance [5]. - The valuation window has been shifted to 2026, with a target price of USD 243.20 and HKD 235.40 based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation [28].