Huachuang Securities·2025-11-19 08:56Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Ctrip Group-S (09961.HK) with a target price of 635 HKD, reflecting an expected upside of 12.3% from the current price of 564.50 HKD [2][4]. Core Insights - Ctrip Group reported a revenue of 18.37 billion HKD in Q3 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 15.5%. The gross margin was 81.7%, down 0.7 percentage points year-over-year. Operating profit reached 5.57 billion HKD, up 11.3% year-over-year, while net profit surged to 19.89 billion HKD, a remarkable increase of 194.0% due to gains from the disposal of certain investments [2][4]. - The accommodation booking revenue exceeded expectations, amounting to 8.05 billion HKD, with a year-over-year growth of 18.3%. Transportation ticketing revenue was 6.31 billion HKD, up 11.6% year-over-year. The international business continued to grow significantly, with total bookings on the international OTA platform increasing by approximately 60% year-over-year [8][2]. - The company has increased its marketing expenses to support overseas business expansion, leading to a sales expense ratio of 22.8%, which is an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-over-year [8][2]. - The sale of MakeMyTrip shares resulted in a substantial non-recurring gain, with other income for Q3 2025 reaching 17.03 billion HKD, a significant rise from 1.78 billion HKD in the same period last year [8][2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Ctrip Group are estimated at 61.68 billion HKD for 2025, 70.16 billion HKD for 2026, and 79.54 billion HKD for 2027, with year-over-year growth rates of 15.7%, 13.8%, and 13.4% respectively [4][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 31.65 billion HKD in 2025, 20.62 billion HKD in 2026, and 23.59 billion HKD in 2027, with growth rates of 85.4%, -34.9%, and 14.4% respectively [4][9]. - The report anticipates a price-to-earnings ratio of 20x for 2026, leading to a target market capitalization of 452.4 billion HKD [8][4].