固收周报：关注债市震荡中的结构性机会-20251119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Interest - rate bonds: From November 7 to November 14, 2025, the central bank conducted a total of 126.37 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 85.09 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 41.28 billion yuan. Bank - to - bank funding prices rose. During November 10 - 16, 2025, the primary issuance of interest - rate bonds was 72.6866 billion yuan, and the net financing amount was 39.0322 billion yuan. Most treasury bond yields declined, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread narrowed from 40.97BP to 40.36BP [1]. - Credit bonds: From November 10 to November 16, 2025, 935 credit bonds (including inter - bank certificates of deposit) were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance scale of 120.1412 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 16.8766 billion yuan; the net financing amount was 2.0711 billion yuan. Most credit bond yields declined [2]. - Large - scale asset weekly observation: From November 7 to November 14, 2025, most of the three major US stock indexes rose; European three major stock indexes increased; US bond yields went up; the US dollar index weakened, and non - US currencies were differentiated; crude oil and gold prices rose [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Interest - rate Bonds 3.1.1 Liquidity Observation - From November 7 to November 14, 2025, the central bank's full - scale net injection was 41.28 billion yuan. Bank - to - bank funding prices rose, and most exchange - based funds also increased [15]. 3.1.2 Primary Market Issuance - From November 10 to November 16, 2025, the primary market issuance of interest - rate bonds was 72.6866 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of 39.0322 billion yuan. The issuance of local government bonds increased compared to the previous period [25]. 3.1.3 Secondary Market Trading - Most treasury bond and state - owned development bond yields declined, and the 10Y - 1Y term spreads of both narrowed [32]. 3.2 Credit Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market Issuance - From November 10 to November 16, 2025, 935 credit bonds were newly issued in the primary market, with a total issuance scale of 120.1412 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 16.8766 billion yuan; the net financing amount was 2.0711 billion yuan. Asset - backed securities had the largest proportion in terms of the number of issuances, and financial bonds had the highest proportion in terms of issuance amount. Most of the issuances were AAA - rated, and the issuance was mainly for 3 - 5 - year terms. The financial industry had the largest number of issuances [43]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trading - Most credit bond yields declined. For urban investment bonds, the 1 - year AA - rated yield declined the most, and the 5 - year AAA - rated yield increased the most. For medium - and short - term notes, the 5 - year AA - rated yield declined the most, and the 10 - year AAA - rated yield increased the most [50]. 3.2.3 One - week Credit Default Event Review - From November 10 to November 16, 2025, the credit bonds of 3 enterprises defaulted [54]. 3.3 Large - scale Asset Weekly Observation 3.3.1 Most European and American Stock Indexes Rose - Most of the three major US stock indexes, European three major stock indexes, and most Asia - Pacific stock indexes rose [55]. 3.3.2 US Bond Yields Rose - From November 7 to November 14, 2025, US bond yields increased, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread changed to 44.00BP [58]. 3.3.3 The US Dollar Index Weakened, and Non - US Currencies Were Differentiated - The US dollar index declined by 0.26% weekly, and non - US currencies showed different trends [60]. 3.3.4 Crude Oil and Gold Prices Rose Weekly - From November 7 to November 14, 2025, gold and crude oil prices increased [66]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - The macro - economic data in October verified the economic recovery path of "downplaying the aggregate and optimizing the structure". The bond market may remain volatile. Investors are advised to pay attention to the impact of the new fund regulations on the bond market. In the short term, institutional investors may reduce their allocation of pure bond funds and turn to bond ETFs or money market funds. In the long term, the new regulations are conducive to the stability of the liability side of bond funds. It is recommended to seize the band opportunities of interest - rate bonds, focus on high - rated and short - duration credit bonds, and pay attention to the Central Economic Work Conference in December [4].