原油现货市场日报-20251119

Report Information - Report Name: Crude Oil Daily Report (November 19, 2025) [1] - Researcher: Tong Chuan [2] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F3071222 [2] - Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0017010 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term trading involves many factors. Market risk preference is declining due to concerns about economic data and corporate earnings, and unclear prospects of Fed rate cuts in December. Despite an increasing supply - demand surplus, the structural contradictions of refined oil products support crude oil valuation, making oil prices relatively strong among risk assets. Considering geopolitical conflicts, weather uncertainties, shale - oil production cuts, and SOR purchases, oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. The short - term Brent main contract is expected to trade between $62 - 65 per barrel [2] Summary by Directory Trade Logistics - As the US sanctions on November 21 approach, at least 7.7 million barrels of Russian Urals crude related to two sanctioned producers will reach the Indian coast [2] - Affected by the approaching US sanctions, the global crude oil transportation volume reached a new high last week, with nearly 1.4 billion barrels of crude oil either reaching their destinations or in floating storage facilities [2] - Due to damage from a Ukrainian attack on November 14, the loading of crude oil at Russia's Novorossiysk port was delayed by two to three days [2] - Russia's oil supply and prices have been continuously declining. As of November 16, the country's average daily crude oil exports were 3.36 million barrels, a decrease of about 900,000 barrels from the week of November 9, the lowest level since the end of August [2] Refinery Dynamics - Multiple companies are vying to acquire the international business of Russian energy giant Lukoil. The sale is being accelerated due to upcoming US sanctions [2] - According to the Ministry of Petroleum, Nayara Energy's crude oil processing volume increased by 42% in October, reaching 402,000 barrels per day, the highest level since June [2]