2025年专题报告铜：应对矿端收缩与冶炼困局——再生铜

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of accelerating global energy transition and tightening mineral resource constraints, recycled copper has evolved from a supplementary resource to a strategic pillar for ensuring copper resource supply security and supporting green - low - carbon development. It is crucial for filling future supply - demand gaps and achieving sustainable development. In China, recycled copper industry has triple core values: breaking resource bottlenecks, reshaping smelting profitability, and supporting national strategies and industrial stability. The government also provides policy support for its development [35][36][37] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Importance of Recycled Copper - Globally, recycled copper helps alleviate the growing pressure on copper resource supply. By 2040, half of global copper demand will be for clean - energy technologies, and by 2050, total global copper demand is expected to increase by over 50%. However, copper mining faces challenges such as declining ore grades, slow new - mine approvals, and long development cycles. Recycled copper fills the supply - demand gap through resource recycling [7] - In China, recycled copper has become a key strategic fulcrum for breaking industrial dilemmas and ensuring national resource security. Due to factors like resource nationalism in major overseas mineral - producing countries, declining grades of old mines, and delayed new - project launches, global copper supply growth has slowed, and China's high dependence on imported copper concentrates (over 70%) has led to low processing fees and squeezed smelting profits [4][8] 3.2 Global Recycled Copper Situation - Since 2021, as global copper production has risen, the proportion of recycled copper in copper production has also increased, indicating a significant rise in global recycled copper production. The growth rate of global recycled copper production is higher than that of primary copper production, largely due to the increase in China's recycled copper production [12][15] - In the United States, the annual waste - copper generation can cover over 80% of its refined - copper consumption, and its recycled - copper consumption accounts for nearly 50% of refined - copper consumption, thanks to the "urban mine" effect. The high social copper accumulation and large - scale electronic waste generation contribute to this situation [18] 3.3 Domestic Recycled Copper Situation - After the 2020 pandemic, China's copper production increased significantly, benefiting from the transfer of overseas smelting capacity and the continuous rise in domestic recycled copper production. From 2020 to 2024, the compound annual growth rate of recycled copper reached 8.19%. China's proportion of recycled copper in copper production is over 30%, higher than the global average but lower than that of the US [22] - Tight copper - concentrate supply has led to negative copper smelting processing fees (TC), stimulating smelters' demand for recycled copper. In 2024 and 2025, China's electrolytic copper production remained high, with the average monthly output from January to October 2025 exceeding 1.1 million tons, largely due to the supplement of recycled copper [3][25][27] - The development of recycled copper in China can break resource bottlenecks, enhance supply - chain autonomy, reshape smelting profitability, and support national strategies and industrial stability. It also has significant environmental advantages, supporting China's "dual - carbon" goals [31][32][34] 3.4 Summary - Recycled copper has become a strategic pillar for ensuring copper resource supply security and supporting green - low - carbon development. In China, it has triple core values. The government's policy support will make the strategic position of recycled copper more prominent in the future [35][36][37]