银河期货煤炭日报-20251119

Group 1: Market Review - On November 19, the port market showed a stalemate between supply and demand, with overall stable quotes. The quotes for 5500 - calorie coal were 840 - 850 yuan/ton, 5000 - calorie coal were 740 - 750 yuan/ton, and 4500 - calorie coal were 640 - 650 yuan/ton. In different regions, non - electric enterprise coal prices also had corresponding ranges [2]. Group 2: Important Information - On November 14, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that the power production growth of above - scale industries in China accelerated. In October, the power generation of above - scale industries was 800.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%, 6.4 percentage points faster than in September; the daily average power generation was 25.81 billion kWh. From January to October, the power generation of above - scale industries was 8062.5 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 2.3% [3]. Group 3: Logic Analysis - Supply: The impact of production restrictions still exists. The coal mine operating rates in the main coal - producing areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia were generally stable. As of November 18, the coal mine operating rate in Ordos was 78%, and in Yulin was 46%. The daily average coal output of Ordos and Yulin was over 3.9 million tons, and the domestic supply tightened overall. Import: China's demand weakened, but international coal prices still rose. Demand: This week, the demand was average. China's procurement demand weakened, Japan and South Korea's procurement was average, and India's procurement demand still did not improve. Supply: The rainfall in Indonesia still affected the tight supply of goods, the number of overseas cargoes was small, and miners were more willing to hold prices. Most power plants' operating loads were in the range of 60% - 70%, and the overall inventory of power plants was at a medium - high level. In market procurement, most power plants preferred to fulfill long - term contracts, and some power plants, expecting the subsequent market coal price to rise, chose to conduct a small amount of tender procurement for market coal. Inventory: Railway transportation returned to normal. The daily average transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Line was 1.3 million tons, and the number of approved trains by the Hohhot Railway Bureau was around 30. The port inflow was stable, and the outflow remained high. As of November 19, the inventory of Bohai Rim ports was 24.4 million tons, at a neutral level over the years. The daily consumption of coastal power plants was low, but the inventory continued to decline, while the inventory of inland power plants was neutral. Overall, in mid - November, the coal production in the main producing areas was low. The coal operating rates in Ordos and Yulin were stable, with a daily average output of around 3.8 million tons, and the supply tightened. The power plant inventory continued to decline, the import profit was realized, and coastal power plants increased their procurement efforts. The port inflow and outflow were at low levels, and the port inventory fluctuated within a range. As the high - temperature weather across the country subsided, the daily consumption of power plants hovered at a low level, and the coal consumption was average. However, the inventory of coastal power plants was lower than the same period, and they continued to make rigid - demand purchases. The port FOB price rose continuously. With strengthened safety supervision at the mine mouth, the coal mine operating rate was low, and the production was average. The demand for chemical coal was acceptable, and the increase in the mine - mouth price narrowed. It is expected that the coal price will slow down in the short term [4].