宝城期货原油早报-20251119

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2601 is expected to run strongly, with a short - term weak - bias, medium - term oscillation, and intraday strong - bias [1][5] 3) Summary by Related Content Price and Market Outlook - The short - term view of crude oil 2601 is weak - bias, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is strong - bias, with a reference view of strong operation [1] - The domestic crude oil futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillating and stable trend on Tuesday night, with a slight rebound in the futures price, and is expected to maintain a strong trend on Wednesday [5] Driving Logic - The latest quarterly report of OPEC turned the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply shortage" to "daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", amplifying the expectation of loose supply [5] - After the geopolitical factors became prominent, the crude oil futures price showed an oscillating and stable trend under the boost of optimistic funds [5] - The weak supply - demand structure of the oil market is gradually competing with geopolitical sentiment. Benefiting from the sharp rise in European diesel prices, the demand factor is prominent, which drives the intraday strength of crude oil [5] Definition of Fluctuation - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price, and the end price is the day - trading closing price to calculate the increase or decrease [2] - A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is weak - bias, an increase of 0 - 1% is strong - bias, and an increase greater than 1% is strong [3] - The strong - bias/weak - bias only applies to the intraday view, and there is no distinction for the short - term and medium - term views [4]