宝城期货甲醇早报-20251119

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The methanol futures are expected to run strongly in the short - term, with a short - term view of being weak, a medium - term view of being volatile, and an intraday view of being strong. The overall reference view is a strong operation. After the previous sharp decline, the methanol futures have gradually digested the negative impact of the weak supply - demand fundamentals. The future downward space of domestic methanol futures may be limited, and the 2601 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend on Wednesday [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Market Conditions - For methanol 2601, the short - term is weak, the medium - term is volatile, and the intraday is strong, with a reference view of strong operation. The night - session decline of the 2601 contract on Tuesday slowed down, and the price slightly rose [1][5]. Driving Logic - After the previous sharp decline, the methanol futures have digested the negative impact of the weak supply - demand fundamentals. The loss of coal - to - methanol plants is increasing, and the supply - side contraction expectation is strengthening. There is an expectation of gas restrictions for southwest natural - gas - to - methanol plants due to the approaching winter heating season. However, domestic port inventories are still high, imports remain at a high level, and demand continues to be weak. With the loosening of supply - side expectations, the downward space of domestic methanol futures may be limited [5].