山金期货贵金属策略报告-20251119

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - Today, precious metals rebounded from a low level, with the main Shanghai gold contract closing up 1.09% and the main Shanghai silver contract closing up 2.19%. The short - term outlook for precious metals is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish, with a mid - term high - level consolidation and a long - term step - up trend. The core logic includes short - term risk aversion due to geopolitical risks and changes in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and the influence of factors from risk - aversion, monetary, and commodity attributes [3]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of the capital side, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF increased slightly, and the recent visible inventory of silver decreased slightly [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Gold - Price Performance: The main Shanghai gold contract closed up 2.19%, and international and domestic gold prices showed different changes compared to the previous day and week. For example, the Comex gold主力合约收盘价 was $4067.40 per ounce, up $22.30 (0.55%) from the previous day and down $65.80 (-1.59%) from the previous week [3][4]. - Core Logic: Short - term risk aversion: The outcome of the China - US talks was priced in, but geopolitical risks remained. The US employment weakened and inflation was moderate, and Fed officials were hawkish, leading to a callback in interest - rate cut expectations. Risk - aversion attribute: There were still geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East. Monetary attribute: The number of continued unemployment claims in the US soared, and builder confidence was low. More Fed policymakers were cautious about a December interest - rate cut. The US government ended the shutdown, and the market awaited more economic data. Commodity attribute: The CRB commodity index was volatile and weak, and the depreciation of the RMB was beneficial to domestic prices [3]. - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [4]. 2. Silver - Price Performance: The main Shanghai silver contract closed up 2.19%, and international and domestic silver prices also had different changes compared to the previous day and week. For example, the Comex silver主力合约收盘价 was $50.54 per ounce, up $0.49 (0.98%) from the previous day and down $0.54 (-1.05%) from the previous week [3][8]. - Core Logic: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. On the capital side, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF increased slightly, and the recent visible inventory of silver decreased slightly [7]. - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [8]. 3. Fundamental Key Data - Monetary Attribute Data: The federal funds target rate upper limit and the discount rate were both 4.00%, down 0.25 percentage points. The Fed's total assets were $66310.98 billion, up $74.55 billion (0.00%). Other data such as M2 growth rate, ten - year US Treasury real yield, and various interest - rate spreads also showed different changes [10][12]. - Risk - Aversion Attribute Data: The geopolitical risk index was 90.76, up 6.72 (7.99%), and the VIX index was 24.69, up 2.31 (10.32%) [14]. - Commodity Attribute Data: The CRB commodity index was 303.36, up 1.72 (0.57%), and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.1106 [14].