银河期货航运日报-20251119

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is in a state of continuous game regarding the implementation range of the announced price increases in December. The EC futures market maintains a volatile trend. The SCFIS European Line Index is expected to remain at a low level in the second half of November, and attention should be paid to the December quotes this week [6]. - In terms of spot freight rates, the long - term cargo of shipping companies has improved, and the shipping companies have announced GRI increases for December. However, the market has significant differences in the future freight rate implementation range. The demand is expected to gradually improve from November to December, and the shipping capacity in December has decreased by 4.6% compared with the previous period. The recent market trading logic has returned to the spot market [7]. - The trading strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for both single - side and arbitrage trading [8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - Market Performance: On November 19, the closing price of EC2512 was 1763.3 points, a decrease of 0.35% from the previous day. On November 14, the SCFI European Line was reported at $1417 per TEU, a week - on - week increase of 7.11%. The latest SCFIS European Line reported after the market on Monday was 1357.67 points, a week - on - week decrease of 9.8%, mainly due to the significant decline in the index driven by the drop in MSK freight rates [6]. - Logical Analysis: Shipping companies' long - term cargo has improved, and they have announced GRI increases for December. The market has different views on the implementation of the price increases. For example, MSK's Shanghai - Rotterdam quote for Week 49 increased by $500 per FEU compared with the previous week. From the fundamental perspective, the demand from November to December is expected to improve, and the shipping capacity in December has decreased by 4.6% compared with the previous period. The probability of resuming navigation in the near - term is low, and the market trading logic has returned to the spot market [7]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see as the market is volatile. For arbitrage trading, also adopt a wait - and - see approach [8][9]. Industry News - In October, the container imports from Asia's top ten economies to the United States decreased by 8.4% year - on - year, totaling 1.79 million TEUs. Although it only decreased slightly by 0.1% compared with September, the cumulative imports in the first ten months of this year increased by 0.7% to 17 million TEUs [11]. Relevant Attachments - The report includes multiple figures such as the SCFIS European Line Index and SCFIS US West Line Index, EC12 and EC02 contract basis, etc., which visually show the trends of relevant indexes and contract basis [13][21].