铁合金日报-20251119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On November 19, ferroalloy futures prices declined overall. The silicon ferro - alloy (SF) and manganese silicon (SM) markets both face a situation of weak supply and demand, but the cost side provides some support, leading to an expected bottom - range oscillation [5]. - The trading strategies include: expecting a bottom - range oscillation for single - sided trading; waiting and seeing for arbitrage; and selling out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Information 3.1.1 Futures - SF main contract: closed at 5504, down 18 for the day and 48 for the week, with a trading volume of 232,237 (down 101,565 from the previous day) and an open interest of 148,169 (up 17,457 from the previous day) [2]. - SM main contract: closed at 5642, down 38 for the day and 120 for the week, with a trading volume of 212,250 (down 183,485 from the previous day) and an open interest of 436,259 (up 31,861 from the previous day) [2]. 3.1.2 Spot - Silicon ferro - alloy: 72%FeSi prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Jiangsu, and Tianjin remained stable or had slight weekly declines, with no daily change in most regions [2]. - Manganese silicon: The prices of 6517 manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia remained stable, while those in Ningxia, Guangxi, Jiangsu, and Tianjin decreased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton for the day and 30 - 80 yuan/ton for the week [2]. 3.1.3 Basis/Spread - Silicon ferro - alloy: The basis of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai relative to the main contract increased by 18 for the day and 48 for the week; the spread between Jiangsu and Inner Mongolia was 270, with no daily change but a weekly decline of 80; the SF - SM spread was - 138, up 20 for the day and 72 for the week [2]. - Manganese silicon: The basis of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi relative to the main contract increased; the spread between Guangxi and Inner Mongolia decreased by 30 for the day and 30 for the week [2]. 3.1.4 Raw Materials - Manganese ore (Tianjin): The prices of Australian lumps, South African semi - carbonates, and Gabonese lumps were stable for the day, with slight weekly increases in some cases; the prices of blue charcoal small materials in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [2]. 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Silicon Ferro - alloy - On November 19, spot prices were generally stable. Supply: More manufacturers in Qinghai are under maintenance, and the weekly start - up rate and production are expected to decline slightly. Demand: After a short - term rebound, future hot metal production will continue to decline. Cost: The electricity prices of ferroalloys in various regions are generally stable with a slight upward trend. Overall, the fundamentals show weak supply and demand, with cost support. Affected by the decline of the overall black metal market such as coking coal, it has adjusted accordingly, but its valuation is not high, so short - selling is not advisable [5]. 3.2.2 Manganese Silicon - On November 19, manganese ore spot prices were generally stable, and manganese silicon spot prices were stable with a slight downward trend, with some regional prices decreasing by 20 - 30 yuan/ton. Supply: As prices decline, manganese silicon production has also decreased slightly. Demand: Future hot metal production will decline overall. Cost: Manganese ore port inventories are at a low level for the same period, spot prices are firm, and overseas mine quotes are also rising steadily, leading to an increase in the cost side. Against the background of weak supply and demand and cost support, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [5]. 3.3 Important Information - On November 19, the price of semi - carbonate Mn36.7% at Tianjin Port was 34.5 yuan/ton - degree, the price of Gabonese lumps Mn48% was 41 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of Australian lumps Mn42%Fe 3.6% was 40 yuan/ton - degree [7]. - On November 18, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in October 2025, China's excavator production was 30,880 units, a year - on - year increase of 13%; from January to October 2025, the cumulative production was 308,062 units, a year - on - year increase of 16.4% [7]. 3.4 Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of ferroalloy main contracts, spreads, basis, spot prices, electricity prices, production costs, and production profits [8][9][11][13][15][16][18][19][21] - The data sources for these charts are Galaxy Futures and Mysteel [12][14][17][22][24][26]