螺纹热卷日报-20251119

Group 1: Market Information - Shanghai Zhongtian rebar price is 3190 yuan (-10), Beijing Jingye rebar price is 3220 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil price is 3280 yuan (-), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil price is 3220 yuan (+10) [4] Group 2: Market Analysis - The black metal sector fluctuated and declined today, with coking coal and coke leading the decline, and iron ore remaining strong. Steel spot trading was generally weak, mainly driven by low-price rigid demand [5] - According to Buguwang data, building materials and hot-rolled coils continued to reduce production this week, and molten iron flowed into other sectors. The reduction in rebar production was greater than that of plates. Steel inventories decreased rapidly, but manufacturing demand was fair, and the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils improved, while the apparent demand for rebar continued to decline [5] - It is expected that molten iron production will continue to decline, squeezing raw materials and causing the steel price center to shift downward. In the fourth quarter, capital release has slowed down, downstream payment collection has been difficult, and the number of projects has decreased year-on-year, so there is still pressure on the upside. However, the recent reduction in steel production has alleviated some pressure, and the main fluctuations come from raw materials [5] - Currently, steel valuations are low, and the market will continue to fluctuate. Breaking the deadlock requires more factors. However, hot-rolled coils have generally performed better than rebar, and the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar is expected to remain in an expansion cycle [5] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Maintain a weak range-bound trend [6] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to hold the long position on the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar [7] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Group 4: Important Information - According to Aoweiyunwang's total data, the retail sales volume of air conditioners in October decreased by 23.8% year-on-year. From the monthly monitoring data, the sales volume online and offline decreased by 22.2% and 42.3% respectively in October, and the decline offline continued to expand. In terms of production, Aoweiyunwang's latest production schedule data shows that the domestic sales production schedule for air conditioners in December is 4.822 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 22.6%, and the export production schedule is 9.074 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 8.2%. The balance between domestic and export sales in the peak export season in December has been broken [9] - On November 18, the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in October 2025, China's excavator production was 30,880 units, a year-on-year increase of 13%. From January to October 2025, China's excavator production was 308,062 units, a year-on-year increase of 16.4% [10]