瑞达期货不锈钢产业日报-20251119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The raw material cost of stainless steel has decreased due to the decline in ferronickel prices. The supply pressure is expected to increase as stainless - steel mills are likely to increase production schedules. However, the demand is weak with low market purchasing willingness, resulting in a slight increase in the national stainless - steel social inventory. Technically, with increasing positions and falling prices, the bearish sentiment is strong. It is expected that the stainless - steel futures price will oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the MA10 pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,335 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the 12 - 01 contract spread is - 105 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 15,655 lots, down 240 lots; the main contract position volume is 183,832 lots, up 6,511 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 68,310 tons, down 485 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 8,850 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the SS main contract is 510 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output is 21,700 metal tons, down 300 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, up 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0853 million tons, up 211,200 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 117,600 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 900 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. The monthly Chinese ferrochrome output is 757,800 tons, down 26,900 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 million tons, up 24,800 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 591,200 tons, up 20,400 tons. The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, down 29,500 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 31,600 units, up 4,000 units. The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 26,200 units, down 500 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, up 1,000 units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the week ending October 18, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 232,000, and the number of continuing jobless claims rose slightly to 1.957 million from 1.947 million in the previous week. Li Qiang met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, expressing China's determination to develop mutually beneficial cooperation with Russia. In the raw material segment, the rainy season is approaching in the Philippines, and the nickel ore grade is decreasing, leading to tight raw material inventories in domestic ferronickel plants. However, Indonesia's ferronickel production remains high, and the amount flowing back to China is expected to increase [2].