瑞达期货焦煤焦炭产业日报-20251119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Opinions of the Report - On November 19, the closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1139.5, down 2.81%. On the spot side, Mongolian No. 5 coking coal in Tangshan was reported at 1550, equivalent to 1330 on the futures market. The macro - situation is that the NDRC requires stable energy production and supply, weakening the market's expectations. Fundamentally, the current capacity utilization rate of mines has rebounded, inventory is at a moderate level, and the total inventory shows a seasonal upward trend. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, so it should be treated as a short - term weak oscillating trend [2]. - On November 19, the closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1639.0, down 1.62%. On the spot side, the fourth round of price increase for coke has been implemented. In terms of the macro - situation, China's crude steel output in October was 7199.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%; the cumulative crude steel output from January to October was 81787.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. Fundamentally, on the demand side, the current pig iron output is 236.88, an increase of 2.66 million tons, and the total coke inventory is relatively high compared to the same period. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants across the country is - 34 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, so it should be treated as a short - term weak oscillating trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 1139.50 yuan/ton, down 19.50 yuan; the closing price of the J main contract was 1639.00 yuan/ton, down 10.50 yuan [2]. - The JM futures contract open interest was 914280.00 lots, down 19994.00 lots; the J futures contract open interest was 49027.00 lots, up 154.00 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 JM contracts was - 128242.00 lots, up 736.00 lots; the net position of the top 20 J contracts was - 2151.00 lots, up 337.00 lots [2]. - The JM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 71.00 yuan/ton, down 2.00 yuan; the J 5 - 1 month contract spread was 156.50 yuan/ton, up 11.00 yuan [2]. - The coking coal warehouse receipts were 300.00, unchanged; the coke warehouse receipts were 2070.00, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was 1052.00 yuan/ton, down 46.00 yuan; the price of Tangshan Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1885.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 162.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Australian imported prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1580.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan; the price of Tianjin Port Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1770.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Shanxi - produced prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1860.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the J main contract basis was 246.00 yuan/ton, up 10.50 yuan [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1400.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the JM main contract basis was 470.50 yuan/ton, up 19.50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The refined coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants was 27.60 million tons, up 0.20 million tons; the refined coal inventory of 314 independent coal washing plants was 302.80 million tons, up 2.00 million tons [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.38%, unchanged; the raw coal output was 40675.00 million tons, down 475.50 million tons [2]. - The import volume of coal and lignite was 4174.00 million tons, down 426.00 million tons; the daily average raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines was 192.00 million tons, up 5.60 million tons [2]. - The imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports was 488.20 million tons, down 39.18 million tons; the total coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 1068.97 million tons, down 1.05 million tons [2]. - The coke inventory at 18 ports was 259.50 million tons, down 3.01 million tons; the coke inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 58.15 million tons, down 0.15 million tons [2]. - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide was 790.17 million tons, up 2.87 million tons; the coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills was 622.40 million tons, down 4.24 million tons [2]. - The available days of coking coal for all - sample independent coking enterprises were 12.87 days, up 0.03 days; the available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills were 11.06 days, down 0.01 days [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of coking coal was 1092.36 million tons, up 76.14 million tons; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 73.00 million tons, up 19.00 million tons [2]. - The output of coking coal was 3975.92 million tons, up 279.06 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 71.64%, down 0.67% [2]. - The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 34.00 yuan/ton, down 12.00 yuan/ton; the coke output was 4189.60 million tons, down 66.00 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 82.79%, down 0.36%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 88.82%, up 1.03% [2]. - The crude steel output was 7199.70 million tons, down 149.31 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - As the heating season begins in northern China, the peak season for winter coal transportation has arrived. As of November 17, the coal transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway in November reached 2116.6 million tons, with a daily average of 124.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.9 million tons [2]. - "China Metallurgical News" published an editorial, stating that all steel enterprises should incorporate the principles of "production based on sales, production based on efficiency, and sales based on cash" into their business operations, not turn cash into inventory, avoid disorderly low - price competition, and not make short - sighted decisions that overdraw the future, and truly abide by the principles of "honesty, self - discipline, and compliance" [2]. - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's crude steel output in October was 7199.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%; the cumulative crude steel output from January to October was 81787.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [2]. - According to the China National Coal Association, from January to October 2025, the total raw coal output of the top 10 enterprises was 1.98 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 20 million tons, accounting for 49.8% of the raw coal output of enterprises above designated size [2].