Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-19 10:26Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2) Report Core Views - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Recently, rapeseed meal prices have dropped significantly with increased market volatility, so short - term observation is recommended. Later, attention should be paid to whether there will be a breakthrough in China - Canada trade policies [2] - The rapeseed oil market will continue the de - stocking mode, which supports its price. However, due to the abundant supply of soybean oil and its good substitution advantage, rapeseed oil demand is mainly for rigid needs [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil was 9813 yuan/ton (down 61 yuan), rapeseed meal was 2419 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan), ICE rapeseed was 655.9 Canadian dollars/ton (up 0.3 Canadian dollars), and rapeseed was 5551 yuan/ton (up 31 yuan) [2] - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (1 - 5) was 363 yuan/ton (down 64 yuan), rapeseed meal (1 - 5) was 32 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan) [2] - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil was 243297 lots (down 7957 lots), rapeseed meal was 387336 lots (down 23838 lots) [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil was - 745 lots (down 1497 lots), rapeseed meal was - 16912 lots (down 12632 lots) [2] - Warehouse receipt numbers: Rapeseed oil was 4161 sheets (down 1092 sheets), rapeseed meal was 2000 sheets (down 745 sheets) [2] Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10270 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan), rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2400 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5700 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2] - Average price: Rapeseed oil was 10363.75 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan), import cost of rapeseed was 8075.71 yuan/ton (up 53.24 yuan) [2] - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis was 396 yuan/ton (up 36 yuan), rapeseed meal main contract basis was - 19 yuan/ton (down 28 yuan) [2] - Spot price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil was 1660 yuan/ton (unchanged), rapeseed - palm oil was 1650 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), soybean - rapeseed meal was 650 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan) [2] Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 90.96 million tons (up 1.38 million tons), annual forecast of rapeseed production was 13446 thousand tons (up 1068 thousand tons) [2] - Rapeseed import quantity: 11.53 tons (down 13.13 tons), import rapeseed crushing profit was 686 yuan/ton (down 62 yuan) [2] - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: 0.25 tons (down 0.25 tons), weekly startup rate of imported rapeseed was 0% (unchanged) [2] - Import quantity: Rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 16 tons (up 2 tons), rapeseed meal was 15.77 tons (down 5.57 tons) [2] Industry Situation - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory: 2.08 tons (down 0.52 tons), coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 0.2 tons (down 0.3 tons) [2] - East China rapeseed oil inventory: 40.05 tons (down 2.37 tons), East China rapeseed meal inventory was 22.96 tons (down 2.49 tons) [2] - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory: 1.48 tons (down 0.32 tons), South China rapeseed meal inventory was 22.3 tons (up 1.5 tons) [2] - Weekly pick - up volume: Rapeseed oil was 1.01 tons (down 0.3 tons), rapeseed meal was 0.3 tons (up 0.1 tons) [2] Downstream Situation - Feed production: 3128.7 tons (up 201.5 tons), catering revenue in social consumer goods retail was 5199 billion yuan (up 690.4 billion yuan) [2] - Edible vegetable oil production: 495 tons (up 44.4 tons) [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options: Rapeseed meal was 20.73% (down 0.83%), rapeseed oil was 13.46% (down 0.54%) [2] - Implied volatility of at - the - money put options: Rapeseed meal was 20.72% (down 0.84%), rapeseed oil was 13.46% (down 0.54%) [2] - Historical volatility: Rapeseed meal (20 - day) was 22.01% (down 0.36%), rapeseed meal (60 - day) was 21.45% (down 0.28%); rapeseed oil (20 - day) was 14.91% (down 0.13%), rapeseed oil (60 - day) was 13.7% (down 0.07%) [2] Industry News - On November 18 (Tuesday), ICE rapeseed futures closed slightly higher, following the uptrend of vegetable oils. The January rapeseed futures contract rose 1.20 Canadian dollars to settle at 656.40 Canadian dollars per ton [2] - USDA unexpectedly lowered US soybean exports for the 2025/26 season. After the report was released, there was a sell - off. However, Chinese buyers started purchasing US soybeans this week, supporting the US soybean market [2] Key Points to Follow - Monitor the rapeseed startup rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory in various regions from myagric.com on Monday, and the trend of China - Canada trade relations [2]