有色金属日报-20251119

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: Not clearly defined in a comparable way [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly defined in a comparable way [1] - Polysilicon: Not clearly defined in a comparable way [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market's expectations for the probability of a US interest rate cut in December are highly volatile. Different metals have varying fundamentals and price trends, with some facing supply - demand imbalances and others influenced by macro - economic factors and industry - specific events [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - The Shanghai copper market closed higher on Wednesday, with the market refocusing on US employment pressure and waiting for relevant data. Freeport expects its Indonesian subsidiary's gold - copper output in 2026 to be the same as in 2025. The stop - loss point for short positions is adjusted down to 87,000 [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly, with spot discounts in East, Central, and South China slightly narrowing. Aluminum ingot and bar social inventories increased. The aluminum market may continue to adjust due to general short - term fundamentals and poor inventory feedback. Cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price, and the price difference with AL may narrow. Alumina has a high operating capacity, rising inventory, and an oversupply situation, and will operate weakly [2] Zinc - Both domestic and foreign mine TC decreased. Refineries' production cuts in November gradually materialized, and downstream buying sentiment improved. Shanghai zinc rebounded after testing the 60 - day moving average. The short - term domestic fundamentals are neutral. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton, and there is room for cross - market reverse arbitrage [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuated narrowly, with dull trading. The market is concerned about overseas liquidity stability. Upstream price support is weakening, which may drag down the entire nickel industry chain. Nickel and stainless steel inventories increased, and nickel prices are expected to be weak [6] Tin - Shanghai tin rebounded with increased positions, but the increase was limited below 295,000. The Congo (Kinshasa)'s tin export restrictions do not affect major mines. The key factors for a tight supply in the future are the resumption of production in Dibang and the efficiency of Indonesia's Tianma's capacity rectification. High - position short positions should be held with a stop - loss at 295,000 [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices continued to rise, with active trading. Downstream material factories are actively producing, and the total market inventory decreased. The futures price is strong, with continuous inventory reduction and strong downstream demand. A buy - on - dips strategy is recommended [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures rose strongly with increased positions, driven by the significant increase in DMC prices after an organic silicon industry meeting. The market sentiment has shifted to optimism. The medium - to - long - term trend is bullish, but a technical correction after a concentrated release of sentiment should be watched out for [9] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures rose with reduced positions, mainly driven by the strong industrial silicon market. The photovoltaic demand is weak, and the fundamentals have limited room for improvement. It is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, and the impact of the "anti - involution" sentiment in the industrial silicon's downstream organic silicon sector should be noted [10]