Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the urea market have improved, with continuous inventory reduction despite high daily production, and the futures price continues to rebound. Attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - Urea futures opened higher and closed lower, showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The trading sentiment has improved recently, with good orders received by factories and firm spot prices. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1550 - 1600 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the highest price is in Hebei [1][5]. - The supply side remains loose, with previously shut - down plants resuming production, and the output is expected to continue to increase. The price of coal raw materials continues to rise, but the increase is gradually narrowing [1]. - The operating load of compound fertilizer plants decreased this week due to environmental inspections in North China. After the inspections end, the operation will improve. The raw material prices have increased significantly, driving up the cost. Currently, it is in the late stage of the wheat fertilizer season, and the winter storage policy for compound fertilizers is advancing. The finished product inventory of factories is in the digestion stage of autumn fertilizers [1]. - Downstream procurement has increased. Although the price has been rising, the inventory has continued to decline this week, but the decline rate has narrowed compared with the previous period. In October 2025, China's urea export volume was about 1.2 million tons, and from January to October 2025, it was about 4.01 million tons, a significant increase of about 3.754 million tons compared with 256,000 tons in the same period of 2025 [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1665 yuan/ton, closed at 1663 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.06%. The trading volume was 249,090 lots, a decrease of 1817 lots. Among the top 20 positions of the main contract, long positions decreased by 669 lots, and short positions decreased by 1566 lots. Fangzheng Mid - term had a net long position of - 477 lots, GF Futures had a net long position of + 375 lots, CITIC Futures had a net short position of + 1550 lots, and Guotai Junan had a net short position of - 1019 lots [2]. - Spot: The trading sentiment in the spot market has improved, with good orders received by factories and firm prices. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1550 - 1600 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the highest price is in Hebei [1][5]. 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot market quotation and the futures closing price both increased today. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was - 33 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton [7]. - Supply: On November 19, 2025, the national daily urea output was 201,200 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 82.91% [10]. - Enterprise Inventory: As of November 21, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4372 million tons, a decrease of 46,400 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13% [11]. - Pre - sale Orders: As of November 21, 2025, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.12 days, a decrease of 0.59 days from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 7.65% [11].
基本面环比转好，库存连续去化：冠通期货研究报告
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-11-19 11:01