聚酯产业风险管理日报：EG供需承压格局难改-20251119

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The demand side of ethylene glycol (EG) has changed little. Polyester demand is expected to remain around 91% in November and weaken seasonally from December. Recently, there have been many unexpected incidents in the supply - side devices, and the subsequent inventory accumulation slope has eased. Against the background of the strong trend of thermal coal, the cost - side support has strengthened, making it difficult for the price to break below 3900. However, in the long run, the slowdown and delay of inventory accumulation are just rhythm issues, and the pattern of valuation pressure under the expectation of supply - demand surplus is difficult to reverse. The operation idea of shorting on rallies remains unchanged. If the valuation continues to compress, there will be strong supply - side support around 3700. For the 01 contract, below 3900, short positions can be closed and call options can be sold instead [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Polyester Price and Volatility - The monthly price range of ethylene glycol is predicted to be 3750 - 4200, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.19% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 26.4%. For PX, it is 6300 - 7100, 14.65%, and 37.0% respectively; for PTA, 4300 - 4900, 13.86%, and 23.8%; for bottle chips, 5400 - 6000, 10.84%, and 27.6% [2]. Polyester Hedging Strategies - Inventory Management: When the finished - product inventory is high and there is concern about the decline of ethylene glycol prices, for the long - position spot exposure, one can short EG2601 futures to lock in profits (25% hedging ratio, entry range 4000 - 4100). One can also buy EG2601P3800 put options to prevent price drops and sell EG2601C4050 call options to reduce capital costs (50% hedging ratio, entry range 40 - 80) [2]. - Procurement Management: When the procurement of regular inventory is low and one hopes to purchase according to order situations, for the short - position spot exposure, one can buy EG2601 futures to lock in procurement costs (50% hedging ratio, entry range 3800 - 3900). One can also sell EG2601P3800 put options to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops (75% hedging ratio, entry range 40 - 80) [2]. Core Contradiction Analysis - The demand for polyester is expected to remain stable in November and weaken seasonally from December. The supply - side device incidents have eased the inventory accumulation slope, and the cost - side support has strengthened. But in the long run, the supply - demand surplus situation remains, and the operation strategy is to short on rallies. The price is expected to get strong support around 3700. For the 01 contract, short positions can be closed and call options can be sold below 3900 [3]. 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - There have been many unexpected shutdowns of ethylene glycol devices at home and abroad recently. In China, Guangxi Huayi (200,000 tons), Hongsifang (300,000 tons), and Sinochem Quanzhou (500,000 tons, rumored) have shut down, with a total loss of 1 million tons of production capacity. Abroad, a 750,000 - ton/year MEG device in Malaysia has been shut down since late September and will continue until 2027, and a 900,000 - ton/year EG device in Singapore has postponed its restart [4][6]. 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - An 830,000 - ton/year MEG new device in South China plans to start trial production with ethylene feedstock in early November, and part of the production will be available in the market. The original planned production time was the first quarter of 2026, and now it is advanced, which will bring a small additional supply increment in December [7]. Market Data - Price Data: On November 19, 2025, the prices of various polyester - related products and their changes compared with the previous day and the previous week are provided, including Brent crude oil, PX, PTA, EG, etc. For example, the EG01 contract price was 3903 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan from the previous day and up 12 yuan from the previous week [8]. - Spread Data: The spreads between different contracts and the changes in basis, month - to - month spreads, and processing fees are also presented. For example, the TA1 - 5 month spread was - 62 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 6 yuan and a weekly change of 0 yuan [8][9]. - Warehouse Receipt Data: The number of warehouse receipts for PTA, MEG, and PX and their changes are given. For example, the number of PTA warehouse receipts was 111,696, unchanged from the previous day and up 13,246 from the previous week [9].