每日核心期货品种分析-20251119

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of the close on November 19, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance, with some rising and some falling [6]. - The overall trend of various commodities is affected by factors such as supply and demand, production, consumption, and geopolitical situations, and most commodities are expected to show a weak - oscillating trend [9][11][12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - Copper: Copper opened low and moved high, showing strength during the day. Affected by US employment data, copper prices slightly increased. With an expected increase in production and a transition from peak to off - peak demand, the fundamental situation restricts the upward space of prices [9]. - Silver: The main contract of Shanghai silver rose more than 2%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver 2602 had an inflow of 1.733 billion yuan [6][7]. - Carbonate Lithium: It opened low and moved high, rising during the day. Due to strong demand, inventory has been continuously decreasing, and the supply - demand balance pattern promotes the price to oscillate strongly, but a callback should be guarded against [11]. - Aluminum Oxide: It fell nearly 2% [6]. - Coking Coal: It opened low and moved low, falling during the day. With weakening supply - demand fundamentals and increased inventory pressure at the Mao Du Port, it is expected to run weakly [20][21]. Energy - Crude Oil: OPEC+ decided to increase production in December, which will intensify the supply pressure in the fourth quarter but reduce it in the first quarter of next year. With the end of the peak demand season and an increase in inventory, the supply - demand pattern is oversupplied, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [12][13]. - Asphalt: The supply is decreasing, the demand is weakening, and the inventory is at a low level. With the approach of cold weather, the demand will further decline, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [14]. Chemicals - PP: The downstream start - up rate is at a low level, the supply has increased due to new production capacity and some maintenance, and the demand is in the off - peak season. With an oversupplied crude oil market, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [15][16]. - Plastic: The start - up rate has slightly increased, new production capacity has been put into operation, the demand in the north has decreased, and the downstream purchasing intention is insufficient. With an oversupplied crude oil market, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [17]. - PVC: The upstream price has decreased, the supply start - up rate has decreased, the downstream start - up rate is low, the inventory is high, and the market is affected by policies and other factors. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [19]. - Urea: It opened high and moved low, oscillating strongly. The supply is loose, the cost is rising, the demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to continue to rebound, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure level [22]. Others - Palm Oil: It rose nearly 2% [6]. - Peanuts: It fell nearly 2% [6]. - Concentration Index (European Line): It fell more than 2% [6]. - Stock Index Futures: The main contract of CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) rose 0.49%, the main contract of SSE 50 stock index futures (IH) rose 0.55%, the main contract of CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) fell 0.02%, and the main contract of CSI 1000 stock index futures (IM) fell 0.42% [7]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all fell [7].