Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy is expected to achieve a real GDP growth of 5.0% in 2026, with nominal GDP growth projected at 4.8%[22] - The retail sales of consumer goods are anticipated to grow by 4.7%, supported by policies encouraging durable goods consumption[22] - Fixed asset investment is forecasted to increase by 2.4%, with manufacturing investment maintaining a high growth rate[22] Inflation and Prices - CPI is expected to rise by 0.4%, while PPI is projected to decline by 1.1%[22] - The combination of internal demand stimulation and anti-involution policies is expected to drive a mild recovery in prices[22] Policy Environment - Fiscal policy will maintain continuity and stability, with a deficit rate of 4% and special bonds totaling CNY 1.3 trillion planned[22] - Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, with interest rates projected to decrease by 10-20 basis points and a reserve requirement ratio cut of 50 basis points[22] Investment Opportunities - The Chinese stock market is viewed positively for 2026, with expectations of excess returns due to a gradual bottoming of housing prices and steady currency appreciation[24] - The internal conditions are improving, with a focus on counter-cyclical policies and a stable liquidity environment[24] Global Context - The U.S. is expected to experience a shift in focus towards domestic economic growth, potentially benefiting China's export environment[24] - Global trade demand is projected to remain stable, with China's manufacturing advantages continuing to manifest[22]
2026年宏观经济展望：经济再平衡，温和再通胀