震荡上行：PP日报-20251119

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The PP industry is expected to experience weak and volatile trends. Although previous cost increases and the downstream peak season pushed up the PP price, the overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情分析 - PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.14 percentage points to 53.28% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. However, the operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of PP drawstring, decreased by 0.12 percentage points to 44.24% week - on - week, with slightly fewer orders and slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On November 19th, new maintenance devices such as the first line of Guangdong Petrochemical were added, and the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 81%, at a moderately low level. The production ratio of the standard drawstring grade rose to around 25% [1][4] - Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, after the end of the US government shutdown, the crack spread of refined oil in Europe and the US continued to strengthen, and the crude oil price rebounded after a decline. However, OPEC adjusted the global oil supply from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the pattern of crude oil supply surplus has become more of a consensus, so the increase in crude oil price is limited [1] - In terms of supply, PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical with a new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices has increased recently. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, the follow - up of orders such as plastic weaving is limited, the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement, and the boost to the market is limited. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions [1] 3.2期现行情 3.2.1期货方面 - The PP2601 contract reduced positions and fluctuated upwards, with a minimum price of 6,394 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,444 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,434 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.11%. The position decreased by 18,039 lots to 620,333 lots [2] 3.2.2现货方面 - Most PP spot prices in various regions declined. The drawstring grade was reported at 6,200 - 6,560 yuan/ton [3] 3.3基本面跟踪 - On the supply side, on November 19th, new maintenance devices such as the first line of Guangdong Petrochemical were added, and the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 81%, at a moderately low level [4] - In terms of demand, as of the week of November 14th, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.14 percentage points to 53.28% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. However, the operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of PP drawstring, decreased by 0.12 percentage points to 44.24% week - on - week, with slightly fewer orders and slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - On Wednesday, the petrochemical early inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 700,000 tons week - on - week, 40,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years [4] 3.4原料端原油 - The Brent crude oil 01 contract fluctuated around $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $730 per ton week - on - week [6]