地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告：浙江省篇

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Zhejiang Province has prominent regional advantages, a well - developed economy and finance, and a relatively low government debt burden. It is accelerating industrial transformation and upgrading and has received strong policy support [3][5]. - Although the general public budget revenues of all prefecture - level cities in Zhejiang Province have increased, the government - funded budget revenues have declined due to the real estate industry. The government debt scale of each city has increased, with Hangzhou having a relatively light debt burden [3]. - Zhejiang has a large number of urban investment enterprises with outstanding bonds and a large bond outstanding scale, mainly concentrated in the cities around the Hangzhou Bay Greater Area. Affected by the debt - resolution policy, the issuance scale of urban investment bonds in Zhejiang declined in 2024, and the financing was in a net outflow state. Since 2025, the issuance term has been further extended, and the financing has turned into a net inflow [3]. - The total debt of urban investment enterprises in Zhejiang has continued to grow, with the debt structure mainly relying on bank financing. In 2026, the maturity scale of urban investment bonds in Taizhou is relatively concentrated. In 2024, Huzhou and Shaoxing had relatively high regional debt pressures [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Zhejiang Province's Economic and Fiscal Strength 3.1.1 Regional Characteristics and Economic Development in Zhejiang Province - Zhejiang has prominent regional advantages, with well - developed transportation infrastructure, a significant port economy, a continuous net inflow of permanent residents, and a high urbanization rate. In 2024, its GDP ranked fourth in the country, and its per - capita GDP ranked fifth. In the first half of 2025, its GDP continued to grow at a rate higher than the national average [5][7][8]. - The industrial structure is dominated by the secondary and tertiary industries, with the proportion of the tertiary industry continuously increasing. The province has a solid industrial foundation, a well - developed private economy, and is steadily developing new productive forces. It is accelerating the construction of the "415X" advanced manufacturing cluster and focusing on cultivating future industries [9][11][14]. - A series of policies have provided strong support for Zhejiang's economic development. The province has completed the "14th Five - Year Plan" with high quality. By the end of 2025, its economic aggregate is expected to reach about 9.5 trillion yuan, and the per - capita GDP is expected to exceed 20,000 US dollars [16][18]. 3.1.2 Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation in Zhejiang Province - Zhejiang has strong fiscal strength. In 2024, its general public budget revenue ranked third in the country, with high revenue quality and fiscal self - sufficiency rate. Although the government - funded revenue continued to decline, it still contributed significantly to the local comprehensive financial resources. In the first half of 2025, the general public budget revenue changed little year - on - year, but the revenue quality declined [20]. - The provincial government's debt burden is relatively low in the country. In recent years, the local government debt scale has been increasing, with the debt balance ranking fourth in the country at the end of 2024. The local government debt ratio and debt - to - GDP ratio have been rising [21]. - Zhejiang has continued to receive debt - resolution policy support. In 2024 and from January to September 2025, it issued special refinancing bonds of 10.9 billion yuan and 8.14 billion yuan respectively. In 2025, it applied for a new government debt quota of 378.8 billion yuan [23]. 3.2 Economic and Fiscal Strength of Prefecture - Level Cities in Zhejiang Province 3.2.1 Economic Strength and Industrial Situation of Prefecture - Level Cities in Zhejiang Province - Most prefecture - level cities in Zhejiang have a per - capita GDP higher than the national average, but the economic development elements are unevenly distributed, and the GDP gap between cities is large. The economic vitality increases from the southwest to the northeast. The pillar industries of cities around the Hangzhou Bay Greater Area are manufacturing, with many national industrial parks and listed companies [25]. - The cities around the Hangzhou Bay Greater Area and in the southeast mainly have manufacturing as their pillar industries, while those in the southwest mainly rely on the tertiary industry. Each city has its own dominant and emerging industries [27][29]. - In 2024, the GDP of Hangzhou and Ningbo exceeded 2 trillion yuan and 1.8 trillion yuan respectively, accounting for more than 44% of Zhejiang's GDP. Except for Hangzhou, the GDP growth rates of other cities were higher than the national average. The per - capita GDP of cities around the Hangzhou Bay Greater Area was significantly higher than that of other regions [32][33]. 3.2.2 Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation of Prefecture - Level Cities in Zhejiang Province - The general public budget revenues of all prefecture - level cities in Zhejiang have increased, but the scale gap is significant. Hangzhou and Ningbo lead by a large margin. Affected by the real estate industry, the government - funded budget revenues of all cities have declined. Cities with low fiscal self - sufficiency rates rely more on superior subsidies [34]. - The fiscal self - sufficiency rates of prefecture - level cities are highly polarized. In 2024, Hangzhou had a fiscal self - sufficiency rate close to 100%, while Quzhou and Lishui had rates of only 32% and 30% respectively [36]. - The government debt scale of each prefecture - level city has increased, with Hangzhou having a relatively light debt burden. Except for Hangzhou, the local government debt ratios of other cities exceeded 100% in 2024. Zhejiang is continuing to prevent and resolve local debt risks [38][41][43]. 3.3 Debt - Repayment Ability of Urban Investment Enterprises in Zhejiang Province 3.3.1 Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises in Zhejiang Province - As of the end of September 2025, there were 479 urban investment enterprises with outstanding bonds in Zhejiang, an increase of 22 compared to the end of October 2024. The administrative levels of these enterprises are mainly concentrated at the district - county level, and most are located in cities around the Hangzhou Bay Greater Area. The main credit ratings are AA and AA+ [44]. 3.3.2 Issuance and Outstanding Situation of Urban Investment Bonds in Zhejiang Province - Affected by the debt - resolution policy, the issuance scale of urban investment bonds in Zhejiang declined in 2024, but the outstanding scale remained large, mainly concentrated in cities around the Hangzhou Bay Greater Area. The financing of urban investment bonds showed a net outflow. Since 2025, the issuance term has been further extended, and the financing has turned into a net inflow [48]. - In 2024, the number and scale of urban investment bond issuances in Zhejiang decreased by 16.13% and 19.78% respectively compared to the previous year. From January to September 2025, the number and scale of issuances decreased by 11.04% and 17.65% respectively compared to the same period in the previous year [49]. - In 2024, the issuance term of urban investment bonds in Zhejiang shifted to long - term. From January to September 2025, the proportion of 5 - year bonds increased by 5.2 percentage points compared to the whole year of 2024 [50]. - In 2024, the net financing of urban investment bonds in Zhejiang turned negative, with a net outflow of about 2 billion yuan. From January to September 2025, it turned into a net inflow of 1.4051 billion yuan [52]. - As of the end of September 2025, the outstanding scale of urban investment bonds in Zhejiang was 200.61 billion yuan, with Hangzhou having the largest balance [55]. 3.3.3 Analysis of the Debt - Repayment Ability of Urban Investment Enterprises in Zhejiang Province - The total debt of urban investment enterprises in Zhejiang has continued to grow, with the debt structure mainly relying on bank loans. In 2026, the maturity scale of urban investment bonds in Taizhou is relatively concentrated. At the end of 2024, the coverage of short - term debt by cash - like assets decreased. Since 2024, the cash flow from financing activities has remained in a net inflow state, indicating strong financing ability [57]. - As of the end of 2024, the total debt of urban investment enterprises in Zhejiang reached 8.25 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. As of the end of June 2025, it increased by 6.6% compared to the end of 2024 [58]. - As of the end of 2024, bank financing accounted for 62.9% of the total debt of urban investment enterprises in Zhejiang, with the proportion continuously increasing. The proportion of bond financing in Shaoxing, Huzhou, and Zhoushan exceeded 30%, and the proportion of other financing in Jinhua and Zhoushan exceeded 15% [58]. - As of the end of September 2025, the scale of urban investment bonds due in 2026 and 2027 was about 700 billion yuan and 450 billion yuan respectively, accounting for about 36% and 23% of the total. The proportion of bonds due in Taizhou in 2026 was 46.7%, relatively concentrated [61]. - As of the end of June 2025, the total debt capitalization ratio of urban investment enterprises in each prefecture - level city increased, all exceeding 50%, with those in Shaoxing, Jinhua, and Taizhou exceeding 60% [61]. - At the end of 2024, the coverage of short - term debt by cash - like assets of urban investment enterprises in Zhejiang decreased compared to the end of 2023. As of the end of June 2025, the cash - to - short - term debt ratio of each city increased compared to the end of the previous year, but except for Ningbo and Wenzhou, it was still lower than that at the end of 2023 [63]. - In 2024, the cash flow from financing activities of urban investment enterprises in Zhejiang remained in a net inflow state, but the net inflow scale decreased year - on - year. In the first half of 2025, it still maintained a net inflow state, and the net inflow of Shaoxing, Quzhou, and Zhoushan exceeded the whole - year level of 2024 [63][64]. 3.3.4 Support and Guarantee Ability of Fiscal Revenues of Prefecture - Level Cities in Zhejiang for the Debt of Bond - Issuing Urban Investment Enterprises - Among the prefecture - level cities in Zhejiang, the scale of "local government debt + total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises" in Hangzhou is the largest, followed by Ningbo, Shaoxing, Huzhou, and Jiaxing. The ratio of "local government debt + total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises" to comprehensive financial resources in most cities exceeds 400%, with Shaoxing and Huzhou approaching 1000%, indicating relatively high regional debt pressures [65].